Tough spot approaching the FT
Posted by WordsWithFrentz
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WordsWithFrentz
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High Stakes
Tough spot approaching the FT
$400 live event (series finale), already ITM, 13/162 left. Most of the chips are at the other table; our 280k (average 230k) is second at the table. The only player who has us covered (by 30k) is, of course, the villain in this hand. We just got moved here, so we don't have much of a book on villain, but they seem competent.
With blinds 5k/10k, villain on the button (6-handed) raises to 20k. We defend with Kc5c.
Flop (pot 55k, effective stack 260k): 7d5s2d
We check, and villain checks behind.
Turn: 6s
We check, villain bets 25k, and we call.
River (105k/235k): Kh
Not wanting it to check through, we bet 75k. After about 20 seconds, villain announces all-in. (This puts 415k in the middle, and it's 160k more to us.)
Do you agree with the line taken so far?
What do you do with the shove? If you fold, you have 16BB left and face an uphill climb to the final table; if you call and you're wrong, you're out in 13th for 2.6x buy-in; if you call and you're right, you have 30% of the chips in play and can start eyeing the $13k up top.
My thought process, and the result, below:
So in order to make a hero call, I need at least two of the following things to be true:
1) There's value I beat;
2) There are missed draws opponent is capable of bluffing with;
3) Opponent can turn one-pair hands into a bluff in this spot.
(2) is clearly true; spades, diamonds, and straights all missed. I haven't got enough of a book on villain to say whether (3) is true here. So it comes down to point (1); are there value hands we can beat here?
K2? Probably wouldn't bet the turn.
76, 65 (turned two pair): might have bet the flop for protection, but also might not.
75 (flopped two pair); might have bet bigger on the turn
72, 62, 52--even from the button, most of these should be getting folded preflop.
AA? Ooh. I could definitely see playing it this way; check the flop for deception, bet the turn as draws develop, then figure I have just a king and might pay off.
AK? Similar idea, but might not go for it on the river. And that's probably the worst value villain can have.
Does this, plus potential missed draws, outweigh the value range (which, let's recall, is only sets, straights (and 43 should be folded pre most of the time), and K7/K6)?
I finally made the call, and villain showed the nut straight to knock me out.
I still don't know if this is a good call or not. What say you all?
Thanks in advance,
Mike
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River lead does not make any sense at all. The K is bad for our range, we should check range here. As played easy call OTR, as you pointed out we probably beat some value here, which should lead to us always calling. Your donk makes it even more of a call
Point conceded about checking first. Having done so, if we face a bet similar to ours (75k), are we calling or jamming? It feels unnatural to not raise with the best card in the deck for us hitting the river, but a jam may only get called if we’re beat.
I would always jam, as we should be beat not that often. Especially If he'd size it that way (75 into 105), since people usually get greedier with their very best holdings. He has 89o probably, 89s for sure, 84s and 43s probably (depends on the stack size of SB too). But these bet OTF at a frequency>0 and for most players at a pretty high freq. Even more true for sets, KK and K7. He could have 66, but these are so few combos vs one pair Kx and sometimes slow played AA.
If we think he herofolds some of his one pair Kx then jam becomes much dicier. Same If we think he does not cbet with his GSs a lot or frequently checks his flopped sets. But these are hard to have Infos, so default definitely x/jam
I don't mind your call in this situation the way it was played. Yeah, he ended up having it, but you can't always worry about the other player having the best hand when you're near the top of your range given the board. Sometimes you just have to be ok taking that kind of risk in order to win.
With that being said, I think you could have avoided an all-in call situation IF YOU JUST BET THE TURN. There is a high likelihood that your pair was the best hand after the button checked the flop, and the board favored your range. So by betting immediately on the turn, you can find out where you're at given what the opponent does:
1) BTN folds to your aggression;
2) BTN just smooth calls and you know there's a good chance he could be slow-playing something. Now if he jams the river, you can take K's and other cards out of his range and find a profitable fold;
3) BTN raises your turn bet, and you can fold your mid pair and retain more BBs.
Bottom line: it's usually more profitable in NLH to be the aggressor.
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