Tough spot 100€ Freezout
Posted by Lyoto
Posted by
Lyoto
posted in
Mid Stakes
Tough spot 100€ Freezout
Just busted a 10K guarantee in 5th place and not sure if i made the correct decision.
Payout. 1st 3.2k, 2nd 2.4k, 3rd 1.7k, 4th 1.1k, 5th 770
MP. 11BB folds
CO. 30BB shoves
BTN 10BB folds
SB. 7BB folds
BB. I have 15BB and have JJ
Everyone on the table is a solid reg except the CO who definitely a big fish. He is only pot cbeting, overcalling 4bet shove with A7o and shoving very wide. I would guess about 30% of Hands.( Unfortunitely my Hud isn't working on this particular site so i don't have excact stats)
Was it a mistake calling of my 15BB stack with JJ considering the big payout jumps. (Villain had KJ and busted me but don't wanna be results oriented)
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His optimal shoving range is: 78.9%, 22+ Jx+ T2s+ T6o+ 92s+ 96o+ 82s+ 86o+ 73s+ 75o+ 62s+ 65o 52s+ 54o 42s+ 32s
and your optimal calling range is 3.0%, 99+ AKs
I really doubt he is shoving that wide. You should only fold JJ if he is shoving this range
19.9%, 55+ A2s+ ATo+ A5o-A4o K5s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo JTs or tighter
Fish tend to have a split range here in these spots, so we should always exclude at least QQ+ out of tthe shoving range, and probably AK too, which will have drastic effects on our callrange.
Since he is probably getting called given so many short stacks I have seen fishes shoves AK/QQ in the situation. It is certainly a point to consider.
For sure it isn't a super happy call but you are folding too much if you fold JJ there.
If his range is split here, and I think its going to be a lot, it makes the call w/ JJ even easier. I do agree they will push AK/QQ+ here too, but less often than someone w/ a balanced range.
I'd happily dial with JJ here. #yolo
Agree with the call. I feel that "fish" don't don't shove optimally in these spots. But they also dont always shove jj+ Ak. As they dont want to miss value from a big hand. So his hands will be more weighted towards 22-TT Ax (except AK) Broadway's, Semi decent K,Q,J suited connectors. JJ does well Vs this range even with the ICM implications.
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