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Tough ICM Spot

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Tough ICM Spot

Blinds: t80,000/t160,000 (5 Players) BN: 4,018,367 (Hero)
SB: 4,900,035
BB: 2,623,744
UTG: 6,568,044
CO: 2,558,715
Preflop (240,000) Hero is BN with 7 Q
2 folds, Hero raises to 320,000, SB calls 240,000, BB folds
Flop (900,000) A Q 8
SB checks, Hero bets 320,000, SB calls 320,000
Turn (1,540,000) A Q 8 2
SB bets 1,540,000, Hero folds
Final Pot SB wins 1,540,000

I dont see any value hand that I beat and I block a lot of draws.
I call 100% in a non-ICM spot, but here I dont want to play my tournament so close to the TF with only 30% equity.
On the other hand, he has few Ax, no set, not top DP (3bets pre), not Q8 (x/raise flop), the only value hands that make sense with that line (x/call flop and donk half my stack turn on a blank) are Axdd (x small), A2, perhaps Q2s, and I see very few hands that call flop and bluff turn: KJdd KTdd JTdd J9dd T9dd.

1 Comment

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nedinho7 4 years, 2 months ago

Well, i think in this is spot, it would be wise to check back this flop, cause you don't get any info by cbeting. Putting him on Ax yea maybe he can have, but you don't give any info about the player, more likely he would 3bet you with Ax hands and call maybe only small Axs. Q2s not the best hand go to post flop so that I think not so many chance he have, and also all those hands you put to his bluff are quite good to shove you, cause its a semi bluff, because all can improve with lots of outs. Well you don't give any question here so I can not give you answer, but yes very interesting spot to argue.

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