top pair traumas

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top pair traumas

Blinds: t60/t120 (8 Players) MP: 1,451
UTG+1: 1,600
MP+1: 2,204
CO: 1,800
BN: 2,123
SB: 317
BB: 2,697 (Hero)
UTG: 1,308
MP is mostly TAG, but i have seen him raising with high suited connectors from the button when it comes folded .
Preflop (180) Hero is BB with 8 A
3 folds, MP+1 raises to 276, 3 folds, Hero calls 156
i was sure that either he is holding broadways or something in terms of AK,Aq,AJ,
Flop (732) 3 8 4
Hero bets 480, MP+1 raises to 1,913 and is all in, Hero calls 1,433
Turn (4,558) 3 8 4 K
River (4,558) 3 8 4 K 4
Final Pot MP+1 wins and shows two pair, Kings and Fours.
BB lost and shows two pair, Eights and Fours.
MP+1 wins 4,558

Also i would like to know how can i calculate the chance of hitting an overcard in later streets

4 Comments

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SickMetaGame 8 years, 9 months ago

Check/Call flop. Re-Ev turn. Unless op shoves to your check I would lay it down in a heartbeat if he is TAG.

As played by leading you are setting yourself up for trouble, building the pot big on a wet board with mediocre hand. You are rarely ahead when calling that jam on flop, you are a running dog for FD with overs, insanely behind against sets.

If you say your op is TAG then only reason for leading out the flop I could think of is to fold to his aggression, I do not see him turning his hand into a complete bluff. Easily 33, 44, 88+, JTs+ and you are sweating your balls off with two more streets to come.

I am not sure why would you put OP at described range since inception, to me with his stack size he would be shoving those type of hands pre-flop every time. Also since you are holding one of the aces then him having AK, AQ or AJ becomes even less likely.

3c8s4s

Ac8h (20.99%)
88+, JsTs, QsTs, KsTs, QsJs, KsJs, KsQs, 33, 44 (79.01%)

I did not include any ace combinations because I really think OP would be shoving that pre.

/Muck A8o pre against TAG, especially when you are in your head "sure" that he has something of AQ, AJ or AK in his range, why make your life hard? A8o flops bad most of the times.

Douggyfr3sh 8 years, 8 months ago

I think defending here is fine. On this flop I like a check shove. You have the nut top pair with a nut BDFD. Check shoving gives you a lot of flop fold equity since I would expect villain to be Cbet folding all their Broadway combos without flush draws. Having the As in your hand blocks a ton of villains flush draw combos.

Redeth 8 years, 8 months ago

I think u played it perfectly. But u have to fold on his shove. Leadibg is fine but the raise shove u cant beat coinflip at best

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