Sunday Storm Tricky River Spot ..would you fold here ?

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Sunday Storm Tricky River Spot ..would you fold here ?

Blinds: t400/t800 (9 Players) BN: 41,977
SB: 48,770 (Hero)
BB: 13,007
UTG: 26,181
UTG+1: 7,120
MP: 32,331
MP+1: 25,141
MP+2: 37,287
CO: 6,257
Preflop (1,200) Hero is SB with K T
2 folds, MP calls 800, 4 folds, Hero calls 400, BB checks
Flop (3,120) Q J A
Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets 800, Hero calls 800, BB folds
Turn (4,720) Q J A 2
Hero checks, MP bets 800, Hero raises to 3,200, MP calls 2,400
River (11,120) Q J A 2 4
Hero bets 4,800, MP raises to 27,451 and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot MP wins 20,720

Villan seemed to be an inexperienced player ..limping 20% of his hands
stats of out 49 hands 20 VPIP /4 PFR /0 threebet .
i thought he might have AX of diamonds on the river , he might still have all possible sets of broadway cards few of which he might have raised preflop but didnot want to risk 65% of my remaining stack and decided to fold .
what are your thoughts ?

4 Comments

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chigh1 9 years, 10 months ago

I dont think this is a mistake. But against this player a hand like A4o or Q4 would not surprise me either. Just check call this river in the future.

SPrince 9 years, 10 months ago

I would raise flop, bomb turn, shove river.If he missed hes gonna shut down on the turn anyway and hell never fold top pair or pair + GS for two streets.

As played not folding vs him especially with the T of diamonds.

Just check call this river in the future.

Were missing too much value by checking when hes just looking to showdown most of the time and will rarely value bet worse.

chigh1 9 years, 10 months ago

I think your suggested line is better, but as played are we missing value? After the call on the turn and the card that rolls of on the river we are only really getting value from 2 pair type hands which I think villain would bet anyway. And we avoid putting ourselves in a really gross spot on the river.

ILoseFlips 9 years, 10 months ago

I would lead flop and barrel, there are too many hands as JT, QT, KJ and small Ax that they are checking back OTF, espcially in a limped pot with passive players.

As played, I would fold, I don't think he is shoving rivered DP, espcially when the flush hits.

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