Sunday Million PS.fr (250€, 3 days event): how do we want to play this spot?
Posted by MrSneeze
Posted by
MrSneeze
posted in
High Stakes
Sunday Million PS.fr (250€, 3 days event): how do we want to play this spot?
CO: LITEFROOOKT: 54998
BN: ---naju13---: 351882
SB: Hake22: 198912
BB: rodmaster198: 169533
UTG: J-ABouyaka24: 155853
UTG1: Joelapioche: 213567
UTG2: matuvu698: 278797
LJ: kevinborel: 387209
HJ: sofska: 84941
BN: ---naju13---: 351882
SB: Hake22: 198912
BB: rodmaster198: 169533
UTG: J-ABouyaka24: 155853
UTG1: Joelapioche: 213567
UTG2: matuvu698: 278797
LJ: kevinborel: 387209
HJ: sofska: 84941
We're ITM, 2nd day of the tourney. Just been moved so I have no history with this table. I only recognize rodmaster, who is a reg on the tight side.
Naju seem like a recreational player (avatar), but obv no read.
Blinds are 3K/6K, 750 ante.
Naju seem like a recreational player (avatar), but obv no read.
Blinds are 3K/6K, 750 ante.
Preflop
(9000)
(9 Players)
Joelapioche was dealt
A
9
J-ABouyaka24 folds, Joelapioche raises to 12055, matuvu698 folds, kevinborel folds, sofska folds, LITEFROOOKT folds, ---naju13--- raises to 26789, Hake22 calls 23789, rodmaster198 folds, Joelapioche calls 14734
J-ABouyaka24 folds, Joelapioche raises to 12055, matuvu698 folds, kevinborel folds, sofska folds, LITEFROOOKT folds, ---naju13--- raises to 26789, Hake22 calls 23789, rodmaster198 folds, Joelapioche calls 14734
Seems like a marginal call pre to me without reads ; I don't really give Hake22 credit for a hand. In a vacuum how would we define his range? Mostly suited broadways and medium pocket pairs? Maybe AQ?
Flop
(86367)
4
8
6
(3 Players)
Hake22 checks,
Joelapioche checks,
---naju13--- checks
Turn
(86367)
4
8
6
K
(3 Players)
Hake22 checks,
Joelapioche checks,
---naju13--- bets 24158,
Hake22 calls 24158,
Joelapioche raises to 186028, and is all in
I need roughly 50% FE for the shove to be profitable, assuming we have 20% equity when called. I don't worry so much about Hake, he's likely to be weak on this spot (he didn't shove pre, he didn't lead turn, neither did he check-raise).
Otherwise, overcall is obv profitable getting almost 6:1.
Is this a spot we want to put pressure and choose the high variance route, or would we rather keep our stack and just call hoping to hit our flush?
Does being new on the table and to those 2 players increase or decrease our FE?
Otherwise, overcall is obv profitable getting almost 6:1.
Is this a spot we want to put pressure and choose the high variance route, or would we rather keep our stack and just call hoping to hit our flush?
Does being new on the table and to those 2 players increase or decrease our FE?
Loading 9 Comments...
Couple of questions, why do you think Hake is weak, coldcalling a 3bet in sb? Why do we want to take a high variance route when we get more than enough odds to just float and realize our equity on the river and expect to get another street of value?
I dont necessarily dislike the flat pre tbh, given the coldcaller in sb, although our hand doesn't flop that massive, we get like 6/1, so its fine to peel. I think its really hard to range someone we have no reads on and is 3betting the button, can be as tight as TT+ AQ/AK or as wide as 22+ JTs+ JQo+ Q9s+ QTo+ KTs+ A2s+ A9o+, but generally somehwere in the middle. Since you're new on the table i can only assume him to 3bet tighter than usual, that is if he's paying attention.
As played, I think floating is way better than jamming. Yes, delayed cbet by 3bettor is prob weak, but im not sure if sb's flat isnt one that's going to fold to a jam. Readless I would pretty much always take a lower variance approach, then again im kinda nitty in low equity spots. Flatting also leaves us room for a riverlead, when we don't realize our equity, if sb checks again and assuming 3bettor will pretty much give up most rivers.
It looks kind of fishy to me for SB to cold call with a premium, because he's very unlikely to induce from me, stack sizes being what they are + he has only 32 bb to start the hand with, so IMO it would make way more sense for him to shove with top 5% expecting to get caled by worse, rather than 'trap' when nobody will get trapped, allowing BTN and I to realize our equity with weak holdings.
IDK, I mean sure he could have a hand, but in game I felt it was not nutted, something like 77-JJ, JTs, KQs, AJs, AQ. After he check flop and check/call turn, his range is mostly pairs lower to K IMO, so I wouldn't imagine he'd be so comfortable stacking off.
As for river leads: which rivers would you like to lead on?
It can be fishy, I agree, but since you've just moved to the table, it might be that there's some dynamic going on already that we're not aware off. I agree usually it's just a random fishy coldcall w the range you gave. I just don't like shoving because im kinda readless, and I think we can also realize our equity pretty cheaply and expect to at least get one bet in, or turn our hand in to a relatively cheap bluff otr.
I think any 4, 6, 8 river is a nice lead, all non broadway bricks, and most spades, as far as bluffs go. But only if sb checks, ofcourse, because they would generally lead out their valuerange on the river themselves, and as far as button goes, i think his turnsizing kinda means like, i'm supposed to bet at some point, and i can probably rep a king. Expect his sizing to be a teeny weeny bigger on that texture, so doubt he has much strong kings in his range.
we dont rly rep value hands because we check twice so id just call and hope to hit otr
pre is a pretty easy fold imo as we are pretty short (deeper id like the overcal tho) especially because recreational players tend to 3bet hands like aq,aj which is obviously bad for us as we hold a9
Thanks for the answers guys. I think I've got too much of an agressive tendency inherited from cash game, where I usually prefer to take high variance plays because it seems to work better as an overall strategy. Not being used enough to survival in MTTs, I think I'm going back and forth between being too much of a nit and taking too much risk in some spots. Didn't find the good balance yet to be successful in tourneys.
Looking back at it, I agree that a turn call is certainly way better. It's EV+ for sure (direct odds) + it obv prevents us from busting on a marginal move (might be EV+, but not enough to justify the high risk). As for preflop, having no read and a shitty position against likely strongish ranges, fold seem more reasonable being less than 40bb deep.
tbh, i think ATs would be like the bottom for calling there, A9s does way worse on ave, but given the odds i don't necessarily mind a peel.
When my confidence is low (normally during a 'downswing') I find myself swaying backwards and forwards between to LAG and to NIT but of course the real answer is applying the style that is most profitable for that table in that tounry for that hand in that situation.
Cameleon is the style I try to adopt.
CairyHunts has this spot on. I think pre a peel is just about fine given direct pot odds, smooth call turn and take equity and rep spades as a bluff if checked too seems like a good strategy to me.
That tourny has such a great structure though so don't need to force it - so maybe fold pre because of this... with that said 6to1 to flop 2 pair, trips or nut flush draw probably worth flicking it in.
In my experiance SB has TT or JJ.
I think the board is too drawy for you get credibly get folds on this board. Calling OTT is fine. Betting the turn could be fine vs. certain opponents. Preflop is good.
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