Sunday million final two tables spot with qq
Posted by OriQ9s
Posted by
OriQ9s
posted in
High Stakes
Sunday million final two tables spot with qq
CO: AlexRidov: 4860170
BN: libormar: 3123955
SB: L. Veldhuis: 8501410
BB: NastyMinder: 10063197
UTG: AB_Poker_12: 4851051
LJ: Booobich: 4571278
HJ: OriQ9s: 3291670
BN: libormar: 3123955
SB: L. Veldhuis: 8501410
BB: NastyMinder: 10063197
UTG: AB_Poker_12: 4851051
LJ: Booobich: 4571278
HJ: OriQ9s: 3291670
Preflop
(300000)
(7 Players)
OriQ9s was dealt
Q
Q
AB_Poker_12 folds, Booobich folds, OriQ9s raises to 400000, AlexRidov folds, libormar folds, L. Veldhuis folds, NastyMinder calls 200000
AB_Poker_12 folds, Booobich folds, OriQ9s raises to 400000, AlexRidov folds, libormar folds, L. Veldhuis folds, NastyMinder calls 200000
Flop
(900000)
J
2
7
(2 Players)
NastyMinder checks,
OriQ9s bets 375885,
NastyMinder raises to 885000,
OriQ9s calls 509115
Turn
(2670000)
J
2
7
K
(2 Players)
NastyMinder checks,
OriQ9s bets 1986670, and is all in,
NastyMinder calls 1986670
River
(6643340)
J
2
7
K
K
(2 Players)
Final Pot
NastyMinder has
T
K
OriQ9s has
Q
Q
NastyMinder
wins 6783340
vil is fish reg, 28/20/9 over ~500 hands, iv'e been pretty active and he was too, was not sure about jamming flop and if not maybe tiny bet on turn? thoughts?
Loading 16 Comments...
Im not sure why you want to jam turn here, if we decide to keep his range as wide as poss by floating his flop c/r then surely we want him to barrel river? Also by jamming turn we pretty much fold out everything we beat and get called only by better. Board isn't wet by any means, and his c/r flop range should be weighted towards Jx 'n some random bluffs - of which there's gonna be a bunch of K's in it because pple defend a lot of paint.
As played think jamming flop vs his c/r range isnt optimal, for reasons mentioned above, we're only getting value out of his bluffs on later streets, basically. Turn K is an annoying card because it fits his defending and bluffraise range + KJ pretty well, and w/ less than pot spr on turn him folding there w/ top pair is prob not gonna happen.
Not shoving flop seems criminal to me. He's going with any pair he's c/r-ing and at some point, protecting your equity in the pot becomes pretty important too.
You'll generally get better advice if you edit out results.
Agree with the above in a cash game I would prefer just flatting flop but i think in an MTT it is much better to shove and protect our equity especially when there is not a huge amount behind.
Why? He can leverage us bigtime w/ his stack. I'd gladly keep his range as wide as possible here tbh. We do get calls from Jx when we jam I suppose, but thats just a fraction of his range. He's more likely to spew off rivers when we check back turn. Just saying that jamming turn is prob the worst thing here, and yes jamming flop is probably low variance etc. I just think flatting flop c/r gets more value out of his entire range on turns and rivers.
I think that I jam flop also here. It would be nice to think that he will random spewy going forward in the hand, but if he is never going to than we are putting ourselves in a spot where he is going to realize all his flop equity and we are going to have reverse implied odds since we are calling all(near all all?) turns and rivers. Also when we flat how does our range look here? We open MP call a x/r on the flop on a J72r flop? Not a ton of draws a lot of one pair hands which are never going to improve much over the turn and river.
Also we are talking about the Sunday milly here. I would be willing to sacrifice some EV in the long run if I will increase the longevity of my stack at the moment. It's not ever week that we make it this deep in the Sunday million and are 15-12 players away from a six figure score.
Call > check > call looks nice but Cairy pretty much nailed it on the head in more detail.
I just thought that when he check turn he is always giving up because if I check back turn I look much stronger than betting and I think he wouldn't bluff any river so I dont want to give him free equity, I think my line is good but I might should bet about 450k on turn to induce.
don't know why we need to be over thinking this and flat his raise, jamming over his raise on the flop seems best. We have 15bb to start the hand with. He's not folding Jx type of hand, and a lot of his bluff would give up on the turn anyway. probably only flatting a set here.
As played, jamming turn is rly bad, standard line would be to check back turn and call most river.( If somehow you didn't jam the flop)
I'm just getting it in on the flop as well with our stack. I wouldn't consider anything else. Especially since you label him as a fish. He could easily be bluffing and fold (as he would have) or pay you off with any Jack.
NastyMinder isn't a fish.
So he's fishreg, aggro donk, w/e, this check raise is so horrible and it even no close. He's really spewey.
call flop chk turn call river. Your logic dosnt make sense. Shoving turn when the boards got worse for you but not shoving flop?
Calling a guy that's top .01% of all tracked MTTs a fishreg while spewing off with QQ seems a little butthurt. By flatting flop, you're basically agreeing to play for stacks regardless of what comes on the turn. No matter what the turn comes, you have to let him bluff. Shoving the turn completely eliminates your equity and only gets you called by hands that beat you. If you wanted to end the hand, you should have done it before the scary card comes on the flop, not after the scary card comes on the turn.
The play of NastyMinder looks reasonable to me. He can take a pot of 1.2 Mio. chips by betting 800K. That are not the best odds, but the hand is good to play for him. The Flop is totally dry and it's likely you missed it. In the case that it is the Sunday Million FT Bubble and you are very short, his fold equity is huge, as you aren't able to call light and you would almost never bluff back at him. If he gets called, he can get out of the hand easily, as your calling range should be very narrow, giving your stack size and the dry flop. He knows you are likely to be strong, holding QQ-AA, any Set, Top Pair or some mid-pairs. The only hands, he perhaps can bluff you off are the mid pairs. Therefore the K on the Turn is a good card for him. With checking the Turn, he indicates that he is not willing to bluff further on or he tries to trap you. After your decision not to shove on the flop, you should definitly check back the Turn and call the River.
If I were to jam the turn here, i'd so so because I think villians flop c/r range is very jack heavy and if i thought villains flop c/r range was very jack heavy i'd shove the flop.
looking deeper into the option of calling, chk turn and call river does make a lot of sense. It clearly keeps his range wider, enabling him to barrell rivers as a bluff.
but what i want to know is, how does our tournament life change when we shove flop (he folds his bluffs, calls with sets, calls off with Jx or whatever) compare to turn and river developments (calling down v bluffs, letting him realise his small amount of equity via his bluffing range, already having us beat)??
I mean we can now see that it is +cEV to play the hand this way but isn't there a case to be made for giving up the amount of equity we have vs his bluffing range, in order to theoretically lessen our risk of busting this close to a 6 figure score vs 8k players?
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