Sunday million
Posted by XeLz
Posted by
XeLz
posted in
High Stakes
Sunday million
We are ~15min before the bubble, villain is reg.
there is the hand http://weaktight.com/6321288
Need some help, just want to see that my calculating is right,
in this spot we need 28.5% equity to call right?
with KJs I have about 34-36% equity vs his range , if I give him 88+/AJo+
if so its obvious call , but can I fold here if we are so close to the money?
and whats best play here? just fold preflop because behind us there are so many repush stacks?
my stats about 18/14/5 for 150 hands, i am isolating weak player..
Will glad to here any opinions on this.
Loading 6 Comments...
We need 14232/(14232+21682+7450+3000)=0,31% equity to call.
Yes i think we got that with KJs. I would call you still have some chips left if you lose, not sure how much the bubble effects this tho its prob a big factor.
I think if you lose this one you still have a good shot of making the money with 13bb stack and 15min to go. But maybe its best to just play pretty tight and dont iso the weakerplayer at this stage of the trny, and try to steal allot of blinds youself.
I'd expect BTN's range to be stronger, as he doesn't have much FE and will want to make the money, in theory. Strategically speaking, it sucks to get down from 25 to 13 bb close to the bubble. The utility of your 25bb stack and chance of survival seem too important to get in this kind of marginal preflop races, imho.
I don't think I'd go to war with a big stack at this stage also ; why do you decide to 3b this guy? He can easily shove on you and put a lot of pressure.
I agree i would just nit it up a little, feels wrong to fold KJs vs minopen but at this stage i think its the way to go, i rather open K7s myself the next hand than go to war at this time, this close to the bubble, our stack is great to make it and i would just not risk it.
Giving his cold4bet shove 88+/AJo+ is quite the ambitious range. He has very little FE if any, and is pushing into a bigstack and a 3bettor that both have him covered (obv). I also have to agree w MrSneeze that 3betting here is pretty meh, since you are kinda caged, and having repush stacks we have to call kinda makes this a losing play imo. I think hes more likely to have a TT+ AQs+ AKo range of which AQs is probably a fold for him. So that leave us w around 29.9% equity. And even that is optimistic at best. So maybe listen some more to Tony Guoga and fold the KJs pre :)
"maybe listen some more to Tony Guoga and fold the KJs pre "
Thanks guys for opinions, I raised because I expect him fold to 3bet a lot,cause it seems strong from me, I felt like I got edge on him, as seeing how he plays for about 100 hands.. and stack he got so big just by few monster coolers.
We got him, its correct range for him, playing about 150 hands 29/27, but I just wanted to know how bad fold this is, when we got stacks like this.
think right decision is just fold when made this 3bet.. cause we are before bubble..
but yeah fold preflop.. its a bad spot to do this depending on how many shorts are left
behind and I need little bigger stack for that 3bet situation..
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