Sunday Mil - Level VI - River spot w/ 2nd nuts (65bbs effective)

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Sunday Mil - Level VI - River spot w/ 2nd nuts (65bbs effective)

Blinds: t100/t200 (9 Players) UTG: 8,592
MP: 8,618
UTG+1: 12,096
MP+1: 6,420
MP+2: 13,205
CO: 11,674
BN: 13,557
SB: 16,196
BB: 18,297 (Hero)
Preflop (300) Hero is BB with 9 7
2 folds, UTG+1 raises to 400, MP+1 folds, MP+2 calls 400, 2 folds, SB calls 300, Hero calls 200
Flop (1,600) 4 6 8
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 777, MP+2 calls 777, SB folds, Hero calls 777
Turn (3,931) 4 6 8 Q
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP+2 checks
River (3,931) 4 6 8 Q T
Hero bets 1,854, UTG+1 folds, MP+2 raises to 4,400, Hero

This vill had shown to be weak thus far (playing 38/11) but hadn't seen him get tricky or overactive post flop, so he's not getting cute on river without value.

That said, I've been playing too much plo lately and quickly considered a flat here vs. a raise/jam. The only 9J vill should show up with here should be 9Jd diamonds.

Instincts to flat here were guided by assumption he can't call a raise w/ a set anyway.

Thoughts?

9 Comments

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piterlanguila 9 years, 9 months ago

I am shoving here, as you said, he can never have J9dd here, so having 9d or Jd are the best nut blockers here , he can also be slowplaying sets here and some TT this way but blocking the J9dd is too good to not 3bet the river and I have a hard time believing he's flatting pre and calling even the Jd9x combos there, but Im pretty confident that if he's 3betting all his slowplayed sets TT and 2prs he likely won't be folding river

Nital J 9 years, 9 months ago

I didn't say he can't have 9Jd, just that it's obv the only combo of 9J he can have here.

Vs. a softer player I think I like the shove too.

Results in this hand: we flatted, vill had TT (and said he put us on a flopped set).

Rapha Nogueira 9 years, 9 months ago

His sizing looks a thin value bet for the most part on river raising strategies but I think you guys underestimate how often he shows up with Jd9x on his flop calling range.

midori 9 years, 9 months ago

He can still raise/call with TT; if he is a type to raise/fold, I doubt he would have raised your river bet to start with. That said, I think this is a somewhat close spot but with the 9d blocker I'd be jamming for value.

Nital J 9 years, 9 months ago

How did I completely miss that we have 9d here? I like shove too, then. I don't think it's a slam dunk call or jam, hence the post. These spots seem to pop up a lot early in the SM.

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