Sunday Mil, interesting river spot
Posted by S.M.S.
Posted by
S.M.S.
posted in
High Stakes
Sunday Mil, interesting river spot
UTG: 4,169
UTG+1: 7,739
MP: 9,361
MP+1: 7,967
MP+2: 14,011
CO: 13,001
BN: 14,892
SB: 10,289
Played generally active otf (donked a lot, c/r-ed once, raised cbet once) and snugger on later streets taking somewhat chaotic lines postflop. (like c/r flop 4way w/ 9d7x on SB, check turn 3way and block bet river on 7d7x5d6x3d)
Betting freqs flop/t/r - 35/31/20
AF - 2/1/1
wtsd/w$sd/wwsf - 71/34/33
Small sample postflop though.
It all seems std up to river.
Now given its really hard for him to show up with 8x and I probably have some 8x combos in my range I`m torn between all options.
My thoughts are if his value range with this sizing is straights+ then its easy to expect him to overbluff this spot but although I doubt this specific villain would have been tempted to bluff with this sizing on a paired board I mainly considered c/c.
However if he somehow could value bet AQ (or flat KK-AA pre [his vpip wasnt insane] and then certainly valuebet them otr) then I guess we should c/f.
But if he could value bet as thin as TPTK with this sizing on a texture where its so hard for him to have many strong hands I think we could profit with river crai with atc and this one isnt the worst combo to do it with.
7.5k effective stack otr.
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