Sunday Mil, interesting river spot

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Sunday Mil, interesting river spot

Blinds: t60/t120 (9 Players) BB: 8,671 (Hero)
UTG: 4,169
UTG+1: 7,739
MP: 9,361
MP+1: 7,967
MP+2: 14,011
CO: 13,001
BN: 14,892
SB: 10,289
Villain (CO) is 19/10, 3betting 8% pre in 275 hands.
Played generally active otf (donked a lot, c/r-ed once, raised cbet once) and snugger on later streets taking somewhat chaotic lines postflop. (like c/r flop 4way w/ 9d7x on SB, check turn 3way and block bet river on 7d7x5d6x3d)
Betting freqs flop/t/r - 35/31/20
AF - 2/1/1
wtsd/w$sd/wwsf - 71/34/33

Small sample postflop though.
Preflop (180) Hero is BB with Q 6
UTG raises to 240, 4 folds, CO calls 240, 2 folds, Hero calls 120
Flop (780) 8 5 Q
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets 362, Hero calls 362, UTG folds
Turn (1,504) 8 5 Q 8
Hero checks, CO bets 550, Hero calls 550
River (2,604) 8 5 Q 8 6
Hero checks, CO bets 2,350

It all seems std up to river.
Now given its really hard for him to show up with 8x and I probably have some 8x combos in my range I`m torn between all options.

My thoughts are if his value range with this sizing is straights+ then its easy to expect him to overbluff this spot but although I doubt this specific villain would have been tempted to bluff with this sizing on a paired board I mainly considered c/c.
However if he somehow could value bet AQ (or flat KK-AA pre [his vpip wasnt insane] and then certainly valuebet them otr) then I guess we should c/f. But if he could value bet as thin as TPTK with this sizing on a texture where its so hard for him to have many strong hands I think we could profit with river crai with atc and this one isnt the worst combo to do it with.

7.5k effective stack otr.

17 Comments

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piterlanguila 9 years, 10 months ago

I think he's very strong there almost always, your double check calling range contains lot of Qx, and if he may think you were drawing to the flush, he's betting kinda big on river which doesn't make too much sense if he thinks you missed, I don't think villain expect you to fold some Qx combos on your range on the river so that makes more likely he's going for value there, also a 19/10 never have the 74s and very rarely the 67s (one blocker w the Q6s) but he'll be having 88 55 and A8s a lot of the time. I almost never see this sizing with the AQ on game, so he's more polarized to full houses trips and air, i'd be folding.

If you think he'll be folding some 8x combos may be ok to crai river buut I don't think this is the kind of spot where we should risk our mtt.

midori 9 years, 10 months ago

Is this a terrible hand to x/r on the flop? My instinct would be that we need to x/r at least sometimes, but I can be convinced otherwise.

S.M.S. 9 years, 10 months ago

In retrospective it's not that interesting spot I think.
C/r-ing this hand is unnecessarily, we have sdv and doing vs Co betting range. We have draws w/o sdv which we potentially could c/r.

Danshiel350 9 years, 10 months ago

The trouble I have with x/raising flop is that it isolates us vs a lot of the hands that beat us. And at these stack depths it's going to be hard to show our queen as a winner ever, and sometimes even our flush. It's also going to be hard to gii goo on the flop etc.

Given the 8 surely benefits our range the most, how about a x/raise on the turn, or a turn lead?

piterlanguila 9 years, 10 months ago

Why overplaying the hand ? I don't think check raising turn accomplish too much, neither a turn lead, I mean it's a good turn to xr some of our 8s and other part of our range that cannot check call profitably but I don't think this combo is the ideal for donking turn here or check raising having TP

piterlanguila 9 years, 10 months ago

I do not see any merit for x/raising having TP and isolating the strongest part of his range, because at the time we get 3betted on flop, we'll mostly be bluffcatching with our TP and looking for hearts in a massive pot OOP

erc007 9 years, 10 months ago

I think your line is good up til the river too. I don't like c/r flop although it is tempting vs. a positional stab. I would temper my c/r frequency here to boards where we can have > 2pr combos. Otr I don't really like calling here with 1 heart, much less with 2. It kinda sucks that we have a blocker to the only oesd too. That said i think CO can show up with stuff like JTcc; J9cc; T9cc as well. I think if we were calling something like 1-a here, this hand would be a fold.

I don't like to read too much into bet sizing, esp from guys that take weird lines post but in this case I do think that turn sizing might indicate a polarized range (ie: nuts or semi-bluffs) but I could easily be wrong.

schifty1 9 years, 9 months ago

i think some of this depends on what he thinks about your turn play. clearly the 8 is good for the x/caller, so he probably expects you to lead some and x/r some ott w 8x, weak draws and strong draws. i would assume your x/c range ott is very much weighted toward Qx, so it seems reasonable to me for him to vb a hand like AQ otr.

also, just from a bet sizing voodoo perspective, in general I employ a strong level = strong read. by that i mean i think 550 ott looks stronger than 500 or 600 and 2350 otr looks stronger than 2300 or 2400. i think its kind of a psychological thing that people think they're hiding in plain sight. but of course he could just be on the opposite level, so its something l try to pay attention to throughout the day to try and figure out if they might have severe sizing tells.

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