Spew in the monster stack...is this a punt?
Posted by SoundSpeed
Posted by
SoundSpeed
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High Stakes
Spew in the monster stack...is this a punt?
Also posted in mid stakes...didnt know which forum it should go in.
I raise 2.5x AThd from CO 38bb effective , very laggy bb calls. I had played with him quite a bit from the day before and he was quite aggressive and defended his bb wide. Flop QJ4hhh, bb chk I bet half pot he cr to about 3x my bet. I decide to jam. Is this even a slightly plausible play, or just spew? Maybe a call is better here but I end up folding a lot of turns I think.
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jamming is not bad, but I guess calling will be better and will reduce variance. And with the nut FD + gutter you don't necessarily need to be folding turns with this SPR.
Pedro,
Is correct to assume that in situations where I think that had fold equity is better to take aggressive line with shove because the EV equation and where I think have a little or no fold equity I just call e play turn ? Because Without fold equity with a hand that need to improve is better try to see a chipiest turn and maybe fold (ICM, survive). But if I had a hand that hit flop (like a set) I need to apply pressure and deny equity to villain range ?
I am not totally capped if I call the flop cr and as such theoretically villain cannot barrel 100%. But in reality he does barrel almost always. As such I will be forced to fold most turns. The pot would be nearly 4 million if i call the cr with only 5.8 million effective back. I feel the turn would be hard to play. But i also cannot see folding away my equity on the flop to the cr vs a loose aggressive thinking player. We had 18 left and i suppose playing lower variance has merit.
You are right when it comes do SPR, i did the math wrong (my bad). So in this case I like shoving flop vs an agressive players.
IP should bet this combo roughly 100% of the time, mostly for 1/2 sizing with this SPR. The best response GTO wise is to shove (shove is better than calling for 0.7bb but Ah5x for example is better to call than shove) given that we realize 100% of our equity.
AhTX is never truly behind, against different assumptions from OOP get it in range we have from 40-55% which is pretty reasonable given the pot is already large and also given that OOP is laggy he should have a reasonable folding region as well. If there is ICM concerns on the spot, then it should be played more cautiously but for me seems a no brainer shove against this player type.
Nice insight !
Appreciate the response and GTO breakdown Raphael. I did consider the possibility chking flop may be an option, but it just did not seem plausible given I block so many of his chk raises and floats. I should have a ton of chip and fold equity in tjat spot.
My opponent was very wide in the bb and was an aggressive player. He was a good thinking player, not a spaz. But still, his wide range alone says a lot.
We were final 18, final 2 tables. The next pay jump was 3 places away. I suppose there may be some ICM there, but I did not feel at the time it was significant. I played chip ev. Maybe that was wrong?
Curious of you could post w/ the payout of the last 18 with chipstacks as well; I do believe the other stacks should change this decision quite considerably
There were maybe 6 or 7 smaller stacks than myself but if I remember correctly only 1 was under 20bb and the rest were 20 to 35. It was fairly deep even at that point in the tourney.
I dont know how relevant ICM is with 2 tables left especially given the next pay jump was 3 spots away rather than every spot like at a final table. Also remember wsop payouts are usually pretty top heavy especially since they switched to paying out 15% of the field.
Someone else did a pio on it and they found it was a bad play. But i wonder if the fact it was a tourney and the chip stacks affect that. I responded as such to the analyses.
Well,
About PIO I think that no one except you can simulate that spot, If I try to simulate that for you I need to know booth preflop ranges, the range that villain c/r flop (almost players doesnt react in the same way the solver). So any simulations can try differents round strategys, I use pure 1/1 and not 1/5 and in this case my solver simulate one action for the same combo (easy to remember later).
Dont believe on a simulations that you dont run with the exact informations you had.
Considering card removal effects, then OOP only raises flushes on this strategies and obviously IP should'nt reraise very often. But it seems far from reality.
"Someone else did a pio on it and they found it was a bad play. But i wonder if the fact it was a tourney and the chip stacks affect that."
I found this question theoretically quite interesting. After all, we do kind of have the best bluff hand, and so if we don't bluff with this, what should we bluff with?
Therefore, I ran a Pio sim with some strong ICM assumptions. I gave both you and your opponents average stacks on a pretend four-handed final table. (Not to replicate the spot exactly, but just to see what high ICM pressure would do.)
Under high ICM pressure, Pio doesn't like shipping here with any hand but sets, with basically no bluffs. Apparently, if this spot occurs under high ICM pressure, it is just a bad spot to be bluffing in both your shoes and your opponent's shoes.
This doesn't say anything about this specific spot, but if the question is 'what does ICM do in spots like this?' then the answer is that it makes your opponent much more flush-heavy and you should lean more towards calling than shipping.
tconservani, very true. I guess you can still get an overall feel for the situation though. I ended up moving out of gto and into exploititive play and I think it backfired on me.
18 players left on a general pretty soft field I am happy checking back and realizing ~100% of my equity since AhTx can call almost any size from OOP. AhTx crushes in equity a lot of OOP bluffs and still can call even if it misses on bricky runouts when OOP doesn't have a large incentive to be value betting super light given there is already some ICM concerns.
Raphael, i do agree if we chk back flop we can call any turn bet and realize our equity just the same as if we had jammed over tje flop cr, and its lower variance. However, given that we have an equity advantage on the flop and we block his cr and float range having many pr and pr plus draws blocked, i feel we have a ton of fold equity to bet this flop.
I also agree that given removal it makes it seem like villains cr range is only flushes but that is far from the truth.
I should point out that the field in the beginnin may have been soft but from day 3 on it was not. There were no real weak spots at my table in the final 18. There were also a few pros including bilirakis.
The hands that are folding flop are almost drawing dead against your hand anyway so I wouldn't rely on that too much. There are plenty of hands that need way more protection than AhTx here to design your flop betting range for 1/3 to 1/2 sizing. It is an equilibrium bet for most assumptions for OOP but as long ICM starts to play a large whole, it should dictate more passivity on some spots.
I am starting to lean toward taking a more passive line. But i wonder what merit there is in taking a chance to build my stack in that spot to make a real run at having a big stack for the final table.
I think the 2 biggest questions surrounding this hand are:
What affect does ICM have here, if any, with 18 left and the next pay jump being 3 spots away? My personal opinion is little if any affect. I made a play to accumulate chips in a very large pot. Did i have to make this play? No. With 38bb i probably could have somewhat comfortably laddered up 1 more spot. But i wanted a million, not 55k.
What range does my opp cr? Does it ever include bluffs and if it does not then do i ever have fold equity and what is my chip equity when called? This i think is where my mistake lies.
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