Sick spot on Sudnay Rebuy
Posted by Jvank
Posted by
Jvank
posted in
High Stakes
Sick spot on Sudnay Rebuy
UTG2: 35816
LJ: 31493
HJ: 6266
CO: 12803
BN: 23364 (Hero)
SB: 35264
BB: 7882
UTG: 31203
UTG1: 8250
LJ: 31493
HJ: 6266
CO: 12803
BN: 23364 (Hero)
SB: 35264
BB: 7882
UTG: 31203
UTG1: 8250
No specific info std stats.
Preflop
(750)
(9 Players)
Hero was dealt
8
8
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, UTG2 raises to 1000, LJ folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero calls 1000, SB calls 750, BB folds
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, UTG2 raises to 1000, LJ folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero calls 1000, SB calls 750, BB folds
Flop
(3500)
6
8
5
(3 Players)
SB checks,
UTG2 bets 1875,
Hero raises to 4392,
SB calls 4392,
UTG2 folds
Turn
(14159)
6
8
5
4
(2 Players)
SB bets 5395,
Hero calls 5395
At this moment didn't have great feelings but cannot fold.
River
(24949)
6
8
5
4
J
(2 Players)
SB bets 12555,
Hero calls 12527, and is all in
There could be some rivers which I imagine myself folding, but this blank one could't fold.
What you guys think, couldn't fold it with this pot and stacksize.
What you guys think, couldn't fold it with this pot and stacksize.
Final Pot
SB has
7
7
Hero has
8
8
SB
wins 50453
Loading 23 Comments...
So he coldcalled your raise OTF, and you are really wondering what hands he's bombing turn/river? The 'blank' river is kinda pointless, when the turn actually is the reason he's leading out.
The blank river is not pointless at all. It is if we know the results of the hands (villain's hand) and that the river card doesn't change the fact that his straight is the (effective) nuts. Villain's range should contain plenty of FD combos. This notion is congruent with him being the 3rd player to VPIP preflop, and with the flop play - he's going to flat this relatively small flop raise by hero a good amount of the time given his immediate and implied odds. So, villain's range is credibly 77, 76s, and several heart heart combos. It seems entirely plausible to me that he chooses to lead turn and follow through with a river shove with this entire range. Therefore OTR, hero is best a good portion of the time, and his price to call is also attractive. I call.
CH, just keep in mind that he should be leading the turn with a range, not just an immediate hand. Yes, the exact turn card that fell is the reason he's leading, but it's the reason he's leading with his range and not just a single hand in his range.
I'm not being results oriented here, I just have big troubles in believing he's doing it w less than 7x.
he bet 1/3rd turn 1/2th river. Not exactly bombs. In a exploitable bubble I think this is just a river fold, but I might call down vs great tough opponents who I know are capable of leading hands that aren't a straight.
Sorry, potsizes got kinda messed up in my head. Regardless, his coldcall is a really crucial factor in this hand. He's not even closing the action. Don't think there are many combos that will play the hand like he did.
so you are basically saying he is bad, which is also why I suggested folding the river.
You raised too small on the flop on such a drawy board, therefore prizing all draws in. However, all flushdraws miss and you don't block any of them. Therefore in theory it is a call as played since you're at the top of your range.
The only advantage of the call turn, call blank river line is that it allows you to fold on a heart river. Otherwise you just give flushdraws a cheap river by calling the 1/3rd pot bet on the turn. Since he doesn't coldcall the flop with air anyways you're better off by shoving the turn, you still have 10 outs against 77 and that way he can't fold on a board pairing river.
The biggest mistake is your flop sizing.
can you explain how his flop 3bet is too small? He almost 2.4x raises and I mean we want to get some value from our hand, I just dont ever see myself raising more
The flop raise is too small because it prices all draws in.
Your right and Im probably not being creative enough, but how often are we going to see the SB cold calling OOP when he flops a straight draw or flush draw with the original raiser still left to act (i would rather 4bet then call OOP). Most likely scenario is it gets raised or folded back around to the original raiser. With no other info, if the original raiser proceeds with his hand and ever has a draw here its most likely going to be a flush draw if not the top of his range.
Agree with GT and Sam, that was my first thought...as for turn/river I think hes gunna have a straight super often with this line and I would probably call turn and fold river.
Don't fold. He has more combos of f/d's than he has 7x. You have top set, you're getting a good river price. 4 is a scarecard for the majority of your range you raise the flop with.
I think the flop raise is a little too small, but I can get behind it if we believe it will extract more from overpairs/induce dumbness from the SB. Keep in mind that SB cold calling 77 otf is not a winning play. Turn is a really easy call, river is close, but vs most its probably a fold, it doesn't matter that he has more combos of FDS IMO because frankly he's a lot more likely to have a 7.
Thank's for the comments guys, I don't want to be in a simililar situation in the near future, but if I found myself a pot like this I will be more prudent.
Why nobody pays attention to the pot odds OTR. 3:1. We really need only 25% for breakeven. I really see almost no 7s in SB-flatting range. Much more suited BWay. Moreover he can have worse for value somehow (55, 66). I call riv.
Don't think he ever shows up with 66 or 55. As for fl draws in my experience people just don't call flop then lead 5k into 12k on turn 17k effective with QJhh there. Would be useful to know the villain but if I don't recognise them and its the sunday 100r im gunna assume he has it a ton. Also I disagree about him having 'Much more suited BWay'... 87s x1, 76s x3, 77 x6 =10combos minimum + 3 more if he has 75s. AQhh, AJhh, AThh, KQhh, KJhh, KThh, QJhh, QThh, JThh = 9 combos and he probably 3bets a good amount with many of these hands.
Stephen, I assumed that he had no suited 7x connectors in SB at all, just 77. Cause I dont think its ok to flat such a weak connector OOP. So if we think its a random (probably fishy player) and you give him 78s and 76s and 75s, then you should also give him weaker hurts FDs: Q9hh, K9hh, J9hh, A9hh, A5hh, A4hh, A3hh, A2hh.
Moreover, I see no reasons for this random player to 3bet pre any of the listed hands including the strongest one (AQhh).
Even if a portion of his range still contains heart draws on the turn, on the river its just 7x or 77. I honestly don't care if i get 4/1 otr or 20/1, if im losing there 100%. It's like:
So you're telling me there's a chance
Cairy, amazing vid. But I'm honestly gonna call and win more often than 25%, cause there is a chance.
Btw our range of raising this flop consists of no 7x at all (we dont flat 97 pre and we dont raise 77 this flop). Sooo = > our range isnt protected at all if we fold the strongest possible hand (topset). In other words our range isnt protected with enough 7x, to be comfortable folding this river.
(I agree with the fold if u can say "yeah, I have enough nuts on this river to call him down, and I dont need to put 88 in this range", but you cant say that - this is the point)
Especially the last one is interesting, because if we look at the current SPR its about 1.3, so we have very little foldequity to begin with. Leading turns with overs and FD vs a capped range of Hero, just doesn't seem to be a proficient or profitable plan to begin with. Our FD's + overs can't handle heat at all. I think bet/calling the turn is horrendous, so we're effectively bluffing the turn with the biggest part of our perceived range, given the poor spr, which just doesn't really makes sense.
Also, why does hero never have 77? Why do we think that villain has 25% bluffs in his range on the river? The only thing this discussion has taught me, is that folding the river just is the best thing to do. No way in hell does villain bluff here more than 25% of the times, his range on the turn for leading is pretty narrow to begin with.
I'm sorry, but I honestly give 2 cents of dogshit about folding topset on this runout. Call me a nit.
I kinda aggre with Cairy, it really seems that we get exploited when we call, not when we fold. I would'nt give vilain credit for a balanced range in this spot unless he's a top player ; most likely he's taking an exploitative value line against hero's strong range that will want to bluffcatch but not to bet itself.
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