Shove or fold? FinalTabel 7.50turbo

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Shove or fold? FinalTabel 7.50turbo

So the a guy with also a short stack just busted and if we compare the stack that we have vs others we need some chips fast.
The pot is big comparing to the stack that we have due antes. Now j2o 8bb here i mean i just don't know whats more profitable.... waiting for a better hand or just stick it in here.

http://www.boomplayer.com/nl/poker-hands/Boom/15905315_FD9C5A361C

6 Comments

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Aaron Sonneveld 9 years, 6 months ago

Easy fold lol? It is a turbo the pot has 18750 in antes plus the 37.5k blind and i have 200k chips that plus i am the short stack and this is blind vs blind. This is actually very close so please study more with icmizer

This_noob 9 years, 6 months ago

Hey Aaron

I'd like to start this reply with a huge disclaimer: I am by no means an ICM veteran, in fact I'm still working through this concept myself. With that said, here's my 2 cents:

Ok so the hand. I think all of your considerations are valid, but I also think there are a few things that you need to consider which you may not have:

1) Your BB is the bigstack at the table:
This sucks because you are not gonna exerting any ICM pressure on him by shoving so he is most likely going to be calling you lighter BvB because he knows that you're going to be fairly wide here. Hell, even if you're tight, he can call u off and still only lose 15% of his stack. More importantly, with your stack size he's just gonna shrug call a fairly wide range because of the odds and the fact that he's closing the action.

2) ICM Pressure:
If I understand one of the basic concepts of ICM correctly, one needs to be more conservative when shorter and more aggressive when deeper (in relation to opponents). Therefore, although it would be correct to threaten someones tournament life by shoving J2o when you have them covered (especially on the bubble or at significant pay differences), in this situation you arent exerting any pressure at all. I think you'll get looked up way too often and that's not even taking into consideration villain's stats (I'm just going by the assumption that he's competent since its a FT)

3) Position:
You're in the SB, you're gonna have a whole rotation to try to pick up a better hand than J2. Yes, there are antes involved but even if you end up shoving ATC utg, you will still have a stack of ~185K which is 7.4 BB (not too much difference from your starting 8 BB).

4) Absolute Card strength:
J2 is just a terrible hand that plays awfully against anyone's calling range, so we basically just give up every time we get called. I like to have a little more to go with. And me being human, i know I would hate myself for busting with J2 on the FT, esp when (if this is on stars) the payouts jump so drastically between 6th and 3rd place.

I would like to hear other peeps opinion of this hand. If I've made some incorrect assumptions or just plainly got things wrong let me know. After all we're here to learn :)

Peace

TL;DR
Fold, wait for a better spot.

Aaron Sonneveld 9 years, 6 months ago

Hey man

Sorry for the late response. Wasn't online before.

First of all thank you for your in dept reply. I really love to talk and response in the same way so ye let's continue.

1) I thought about that after the hand and i agree with you. He will call any suited connector/1 gapper actually almost any high card with random kicker so probably like 70%/75%? But i ain't a ICMIZER pro to but what I do know is that even with j2 here we had 33% equity pre. Now if we look at our hand the j2o it does not well but better then i thought.

2) There is indeed no icm pressure involved here at all. However, if we take other things in consideration: 1. It is a turbo. So this was also a factor that played big role in my shoving decision. In a reg speed i know that I would fold. There are some other hands to choose from but bigger antes will get involved like 2/3 hands after this one. So with that in mind i think about the 33% i have here in the turbo blind vs blind vs alot of hands he will call with. The pot is 1/4th of my stack that's huge. Now i am not good in calculating this stuff but i understand ICMIZER with shoving like 78%. There is a change he would fold and i pick up 1 4th of my stack and if i do get called my equity is 33%. So even though I like folding a bit more, it's actually very close. K2o i would shove that's for sure...

3) Agree but blinds were about to go up . Now if we wait lets say 3 hands then my stack is shallower and my shove need to go through more people so changes i get called multi way with a smaller stack lets say 160k is huge because of the two big stacks on my left. So blind vs blind i think it is really close because there will not be a huge difference in what is more profitable between shoving like j2/q2 blind vs blind get called with 33%equity and a change my shove gets through and waiting for a hand shoving like 160k in 2 big stacks. And maybe i don't get a hand and i am priced in when i have the BB with a crappy hand. So again it is so close.

It does not seem like a super interesting spot but thinking about not shoving here and wait for a better hand shoving with even less into 2 big stacks and with a change i don;t even get a hand...... man interesting

4) Totally agree. I was not happy at all and posted it here to see the reactions. However it is very close. Like very very close. The payout jumps are huge in between there so the more important this spot is and sorry but i say it again after looking at the options: Very Close :O

Again thanks for your reply hope to hear from you soon

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