Shove or Flat? FT Night on Stars

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Shove or Flat? FT Night on Stars

Blinds: t1,250/t2,500 (8 Players) CO: 123,766
BN: 201,963
SB: 72,758
BB: 77,168 (Hero)
UTG: 67,827
UTG+1: 126,050
MP: 140,651
MP+1: 43,817
Preflop (3,750) Hero is BB with 8 8
4 folds, CO raises to 5,000, 2 folds, Hero raises to 76,858 and is all in, CO calls 71,858
Flop (157,446) K 3 5
Turn (157,446) K 3 5 J
River (157,446) K 3 5 J T
Final Pot CO wins and shows a straight, Ten to Ace.
BB lost and shows a pair of Eights.
CO wins 157,446

Hello everyone, considering the ICM this spot is better shove or flat? Co has steal 60% on 1k hands and the stacks you see them below .. the payout was about this:
1. 4.2k
2. 3.1k
3. 2.3k
4.1.7k
5. 1.2k
6. 900
7. 690
8. 510

12 Comments

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Nick Steiner 6 years, 8 months ago

I agree with your shove.

Villian is going to be able to put you in tough spots post flop and his opening range is wide enough to get plenty of folds.

How active was the button? If he was aggro/active it becomes closer because CO would open a much tighter range. I still think I'm shoving though.

kekko9221 6 years, 8 months ago

The argument is that both co and btn are fish, so I don't think co is willing to change open range based on opponents ..
Btw I think it's the bottom of my shoving range 88 in this spot

Samu Patronen 6 years, 8 months ago

Shoving 30bb into a minraise seems like a lot to me. Is this standard?

BarracudaNL 6 years, 8 months ago

I don't have a preflop ICM solver, so I'm not 100% certain it is a shove, and I'm open to being proven wrong. However, my excessive notes on high rollers suggest it is within the realm of reason to reshove here. 88 is typically the type of hand that loses a lot of postflop value in high-pressure ICM situations, while Villain should be very tight in calling reshoves. (I'm not really sure if the AQo call off here is correct.)

Villain tendencies here make the case for reshoving substantially stronger.

BM.dbleal 6 years, 8 months ago

Its not so obvious this overshove and it shouldnt be the call as well... untill the end of the hand you were the 5º in chips with a stack of 30bbs.

  • It's a hyper, a turbo or a regular tourney?
  • Besides the wide range (that you were probably assuming that CO had), do you have any particular number that shows that he was stolen too much from that position?

    You are gambling by US 690.00 here... besides, you are risking all your stack to win ~ 15% of it. Against a 24/16; Doesn't sound so good to me, specially in a FT when you have 20% more chips than the average of those whom has less chips than you and you have other higher stacks who are losing more their ranges, like the 36/26 and the 35/17.

    I know that many regs would advocate to shove in this spot, but i can only see that what you were doing is increasing your variance doing so (in this specific spot); and don't forget that even if against the CO range your overshove would be ok (mathematically speaking), you should balance this to keep them guessing and prefer to do it in a spot that would give you more chips than 15% of your stack... a open by the 36/26 and a flat by the 35/17, for example.

So, although it would be possible to justify your overshove (against the CO range), don't seems to be a very smart play in this particular scenario. I would make a standard call or even a small 3bet (if i had the info that he usually folds to 3bets then make a cbet and turn off the hand if i find any kind of resistance by him).

Regards,

TheSeXFactor 6 years, 8 months ago

I think it's a complicated hand and maybe a fold. We can say that folding is a mistake right? I don't like the call since we are just trying to set mine or folding. Cutoff ranges and button ranges are so wide that the shove must be profitable, it is a shove, not a calling of a shove. He is risking his huge stack against a flip, probably, which is clearly wrong for ICM. Anyway you picked your spot and can't wait forever on a final table for every short stack to get busted. Don't know if its correct but I would have played it just like you.

TristanBernier 6 years, 8 months ago

I think it's a pretty close spot. I also think that it's really depending on the type of player CO was. If he is a fish, I would consider just calling because usually, fish don't fold much these days and you don't want to put yourself in a 50/50 or a 60/40 at this stage of the tournament because of the smaller stacks that eventually will bust before you. If he is a good reg, shoving make a lot of sense because you dominate a lot of his range especially knowing he has a 60% steal. I've also struggled a lot with ICM lately so if anyone want to talk about it more, i' down.

Einstein550 . 6 years, 8 months ago

That's a pretty close spot with 88 intuitivly speaking, but there are some things to consider:
1- the Co stats are pretty similar to a regular, so I'd assume that a guy with stats like this, in this specific situation are gonna open fairly more than his standard open range on Co, then I think is a pretty good shove, because you're gonna have a lot of fold equity, and also, if he is a regular, his is gonna put a lot of pressure post flop given the ICM dynamics and 88 is a hand that in a normal situation has a poor realization equity, with a possibility of you be under a lot of pressure pos flop it gets even worse.
2- How aggressive with 3bet are the players on villain's left, (including you)? if he is a reg he's gonna make this adjustment, opening tighter (at least should), speacially the button that has a stack bigger and can put a lot of ICM pressure on this situation, if speacially the button is the type of player who don't 3bet enough in this is spot I think his range tends to continues wide
3- how much edge on the table, the structure of the tournament: if it's a tournament more low stakes I tend to just call given that I think is a pretty high variance play and if the Co is a fish is an easy call, given that I don't expect a fish to put that much ICM pressure post flop then your hand have a way better equity realization, and also you tend to have less fold equity because a fish is not gonna be aware of ICM and can call you to much. I recommend you to check it on an ICM calculator, because ICM can be very tricky and counterintuitive sometimes, I think you can run 3 hands for free on ICMIZER, so you don't have to sign to solve this hand in a more accurate results.
those are my thoughts, I hope I could help.

Pedro Madeira 6 years, 7 months ago

Hey guys, I did not read everything, but this is an ok shove according to ICM, specially when we won't be able to play 88 well enough post-flop to realize it's equity. Considering CO's calling range vs BB shove of only 88+, AK (range taken from HRC), we have:

ICM: (BB shoving range)

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