Should I size bigger the turn?
Posted by Manuks21
Posted by
Manuks21
posted in
Low Stakes
Should I size bigger the turn?
888 Poker - 2000/4000 Ante 500 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
wagnergnose (CO): 12.85 BB
ImTheOne21 (BTN): 31.56 BB
Cotriferro (SB): 9.28 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 17)
anippygirl (BB): 1.22 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 5)
puresway (UTG): 0.41 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
Poker2484 (UTG+1): 5.82 BB (VPIP: 34.38, PFR: 34.38, 3Bet Preflop: 42.86, Hands: 32)
gevanicastro (MP): 12.9 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
alex021683 (MP+1): 4.02 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
Lara_KrofT14 (MP+2): 15.56 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Cotriferro posts SB 0.5 BB, anippygirl posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) ImTheOne21 has 5d 5s
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, wagnergnose raises to 3 BB, ImTheOne21 calls 3 BB, fold, anippygirl calls 0.1 BB and is all-in
Flop : (8.72 BB, 3 players) 7d Qc Kh
wagnergnose checks, ImTheOne21 checks
Turn : (8.72 BB, 3 players) 3h
wagnergnose checks, ImTheOne21 bets 4.36 BB, wagnergnose calls 4.36 BB
River : (17.45 BB, 3 players) Ah
wagnergnose bets 5.36 BB and is all-in, fold
wagnergnose shows Jc Ad (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 68%, Flop 39%, Turn 24%)
anippygirl shows 7s 2c (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 32%, Flop 61%, Turn 76%)
wagnergnose wins 12.52 BB
wagnergnose wins 4.92 BB
Should I size bigger the turn? Like 80%? Thanks!
Loading 7 Comments...
Unsure on what the Villains style however
Villain standard PFR 3BB, Hero calls. Standard.
What is the Villains range in LP? Is he TAG/LAG?
Flop shows 7QK. Villain checks, thing is I'd ask myself is he trapping or on a draw? I'd probably throw in a 6BB bet here. You got 55, if he calls you know he's definitely trapping or possibly chasing that straight. But most likely with this flop he would fold and if he does call you evaluate the turn, maybe double barrel.
summary.You basically gave him the free cards, playing it softly, PF: call, Flop: check, turn: standard half pot bet.. what was your focus on the turn? Want him to.fold? Value betting?
Also with the Villian on 12BB we are going to assume his wide is a little wider as he is basically in the open shove stack. With him, raising 3BB I'd consider it a strong hand (AT+)as he wants someone to play . I probably would of laid 55 down in this case.
If Vilain is a decent player his checking range otf should be balanced and have Kx as well as Qx, low pairs and A high. So by betting the flop, turn or river you are basically bluffing your range and trying to make Qx or lower to fold, its never a value bet.
btw, 55 should be a fold pre vs a 12bb stack open raise for 3bb.
What is the logic behind the folding a 55 vs a 12bb stack?
small pairs play very poorly pos flop when do not hit a set *even vs short stacks) and do not receive enough pot odds to call vs a short stack
fold > shove > call.
set mining needs at least 8-1 to call. maybe closer to 12-1 or better because you don't always get paid of when you hit a set. not getting anywhere near those odds.
the other possibility pre flop is to shove 55 but given opponent has bet 25% of his stack he's rarely folding. if his raise was only 2bb that would be 17% of stack. still probably not folding. if his open was about 12% or less likely of opponent raise/folding much greater. i might shove under those circumstances given opponent is 3rd largest stack with lots of short stacks behind. two are tiny stacks. this is an important consideration.
also how many tables left? itm? next pay jump?
if you shove 55 and get called it's probably a flip 80-90% of the time and 10-20% of the time 55 behind to a bigger pair. so overall its -ev.
99+ might be a profitable shove(?). what do you think Pedro?
On the flip side... if we have AJo we are shipping it right? I am shipping any hand I am willing to open on the CO when I have 12bb. btw given the BB is calling EVERY TIME I am not shoving light here.
Rarely see flops this late in a tourney with shallow stacks.
As played, a bet on the flop is better than on turn. with A, K, Q on board 55 is in terrible shape. Also Pedro... how much more likely is Ax a greater part of opponents range than Kx, Qx?
(I can't get my head around AJo not open shoving)
I think it's very unlikely vilain is open folding 3x with that stack size, therefore I would only be shoving hands that are ahead of his range, something like 88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs. (I might call hands such as KQ-KTs, KQo and QJ if I think his range leans towards Ax.)
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