Should I have shoved???
Posted by tbeckbeck
Posted by
tbeckbeck
posted in
Low Stakes
Should I have shoved???
blinds 300/600 4.50 180man on pokerstars
guy raises 2x 1200 utg with 32,000 hes not been raising loads but he hasn't been tight either
I have 18,000 I call on button with 76 suited
flop comes 9 J 8 rainbow
He bets 1,355 into like 3000, I call because when someone under the gun bets on to that sort of flop he has minimum aj and overpairs as hes likely getting raised on this flop alot. If I raise then I'm getting shoved on loads and I can't call
turn is a Q so board is 9J8Q he checks I bet 2,900 into 6,000 he calls, river is a blank 3. He checks to me now I immediately think shove but I ended up checking and he showed a set of queens. Do you think I should be shoving there I had his range on 99,jj,1010,qq,kk,aa and I just didn't think he would fold enough but at the same time I keep thinking I should have shoved. I was in 10th place with 15th left by the way this would have put me like 3rd or 4th in chips if the shoved got through
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Shoving is just not profitable the way the hand was played. I don't believe there are enough T's in your range where it makes the shove profitable. Even if you put him on bottom set on flop, he thinks that you'd hardly ever x/c flop with 2nd set or top set. Thus villain knows that he's up against one of 3 MAYBE 4 hands max that has him beat (TT, 9Ts, JTs, ATs/o). I don't know how you play but it's unlikely that you call with KTs in that spot.
On the flip side... not "knowing" what he has... if you were to shove river you have to think about what hands is the guy folding? If you put him on even 88+ and AJs+ preflop, you need to consider what hands would he be betting flop with? AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT (maybe, seems to be a stretch though), 99, 88 and AJ are most likely. I think a fair amount he'll lead with AQs (backdoor flush draw). He obviously wouldn't lead AK hardly ever unless the guy is fairly aggro.
When you call flop, and see the Q, I don't know of a single hand the guy would lead with. I think in certain situations against specific opponents, I MIGHT lead combinations that make me a straight on turn but very rarely. Upon his check to you, think about all the hands that your representing: AJ, 99, 88, 89, KJ, QJ, etc... then there are hands that get there on the turn like 9Ts, 8Ts, JTs, TT, QTs... BUT if you really had hands that were first mentioned that DO NOT make a straight... I don't think you flat the flop in position on a wet board like that with those hands. Again, just an assumption being made. So for the villain, those combinations are out. Now he's playing you against a T and only a T.
On the river here is how I would break down his ranges: AA (not calling often, but might in "hero" type situations), KK same as AA, AK (he NEVER has the way the hand played), AQ does not call, AJ does not call, AT and TT snaps you off. 88, 99, JJ, QQ all reluctantly call after a tank. 4 hands he folds, 6 hands he calls with. If you think he folds 50% of the time... the shove is "profitable" according to chipping up and ICM BUT at the same time it's VERY VERY VERY hard for you to rep a T or a hand like a set that has value on the river the way the hand was played.
Keep grinding and GL at the tables.
the fact I didnt check raise flop I think in most people eyes puts me on a jack or a draw and all my draws have a 10 really, but the way you broke it down I did the same and just thought when someone bets that flop they have sets and overpairs nearly always.
Fold pre.....just fold pre.
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