Should I fold this flop?
Posted by ANitInParis
Posted by
ANitInParis
posted in
Low Stakes
Should I fold this flop?
CO: BboyBilou: 1078302
BN: ELPASSO10: 7292909
SB: ritonone: 941746
BB: Optimal EV: 4854847
HJ: KKAAMlOTTEV+: 5328017
BN: ELPASSO10: 7292909
SB: ritonone: 941746
BB: Optimal EV: 4854847
HJ: KKAAMlOTTEV+: 5328017
Preflop
(195000)
(5 Players)
Optimal EV was dealt
A
K
KKAAMlOTTEV+ folds, BboyBilou raises to 260000, ELPASSO10 calls 260000, ritonone folds, Optimal EV raises to 845000, BboyBilou folds, ELPASSO10 calls 585000
KKAAMlOTTEV+ folds, BboyBilou raises to 260000, ELPASSO10 calls 260000, ritonone folds, Optimal EV raises to 845000, BboyBilou folds, ELPASSO10 calls 585000
I considered flatting and jamming too, what do you think of these options?
Ended up squeezing big because I wanted to isolate the CO and make the BN fold.
Ended up squeezing big because I wanted to isolate the CO and make the BN fold.
Flop
(2145000)
A
Q
2
(2 Players)
Optimal EV bets 832000,
ELPASSO10 raises to 1664000,
Optimal EV raises to 3996847, and is all in,
ELPASSO10 calls 2332847
Turn
(10970694)
A
Q
2
9
(2 Players)
River
(10970694)
A
Q
2
9
8
(2 Players)
Final Pot
Optimal EV has
A
K
ELPASSO10 has
Q
A
ELPASSO10
wins 10073694
Hello, my first post ever, here it goes:
Stars.fr 3r, we are 3/11 with 38BB, villain is CL and has an Aggression factor of 0.6 combined with a high VPIP, around 40.
Given this, can or shoud we get away from this hand on the flop, given that we have lots of chips, the field is soft and we are facing elimination?
Any thoughts very much appreciated!
Loading 6 Comments...
Okay, so lets make it a first timers thread ;-)
Definitely like 3betting over the above mentioned alternatives. Guess its unlikely you will get called by worse hands if you shove in 38BB here, especially since its almost FT Bubble. Would also choose other hands to flat with. HU you could make more of an argument for just defending AK here but against 2 players oop i dont like it to much. Sizing i dont know, definitely something i have to work on :D Perhaps it looks a bit to nutted by betting this much or is it fine given we are playing 38BB effective?
On the flop dont raise against his raise! You will never get it in ahead. Flat and reassess Turn/River but youre likely beat by now since by your stats it doesnt seem like hes the guy who is raising worse aces/broadways there.
That brings up another idea. What about checking the flop? Should be a miles ahead, miles behind situation and pot controlling is not to bad so close to the FT with being in third place. Also gives him the chance to bluff with his 109s etc. which he is flatting pre sometimes i guess due to his stats.
If we flat there is over 5.4m in the pot and less than 2.5m in our stack. There's no turn we should fold, and villain probably would not bluff - at least he would be silly to. So what happens is villain checks back turn and only gets it in with us if he makes it there on the river.
If we had 10m back then calling flop becomes a viable option, but here we should just wager the rest and hope of the best.
Shame on me not realizing our SPR, obv get in then. Still don't love this spot but like Justin said "hope of the best"...
I agree with what Hese posted and was going to say virtually the same stuff. Great advice.
Thanks for the comments guys, definitely felt the way I played the hand wasn't the best. Thanks again and I'll see you around!
I think you played this hand perfectly. It's a 3r on pokerstars.fr vs. a guy with a high VPIP and one he minraises the flop we have like 0.5 pot left. Definitely shove, he will have worse Ax or a FD more then enough of the time to make it best.
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