Well if it's straight odds you're looking for just calculate the combos you thinks in his range and see if you're getting the right price.

Beyond that I always factor in how valuable my tourney life is. If it's some small tourney I'll take the good odds every time but if it's in a tourney I really wanna cash in cause I'm taking a shot then I'll sometimes avoid high variance spots.

Then there's also any reads you have. Like if the guy is a super nit obv lean towards no bluff a bit more.

I'd 3bet pre. As played, I'd fold OTF (I'd call his Cbet if I was IP). When he checks OTT, I don't put him on a J or a straight or a set but he can have 6x (often A6) or 5x (often A5) and maybe A2. Did he barrel flop + turn with his FD ? Did he check his BDFD when it comes OTT ?

You need 32% equity OTR and I think you have it since there are a lot of FD (this is why I think knowing how he plays his FD is essential here). But villain open 3*, cbet small OTF and pot OTR so I think he is a straightforward player and because of that I think I'd fold OTR (I think he has often DP here)

People just dont bluff enough on this spots taking b x b line. Fishes like to size their opening 3xing with the top of his range. Over the river is pretty unlikely he is valuebetting worst so we bluffcatching. We are very high in our range and all that stuff, But I think that is somethin dumb to apply in mtts against weak/bad players who are very unbalanced here.

I slightly prefer x folding > x raising otf

OTR as played I rather bet around 50% pot as you dont want to size it smaller inducing some few bluffs getting u into a tricky spot since villain has lots of 2pr combos and he could even be raising AQ+ for value here

pre the 3bet is not bad if we know the player is bad, but if the player is tight ill 3bet him most of the times. The flop played in that way ill fold it