Running a three barrel bluff vs. a medium strength range

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Running a three barrel bluff vs. a medium strength range

Blinds: t1,000/t2,000 (9 Players) MP: 49,983
UTG+1: 52,107
MP+1: 29,481
MP+2: 35,195
CO: 54,060
BN: 68,689
SB: 68,019
BB: 146,252 (Hero)
UTG: 16,128
Preflop (3,000) Hero is BB with 2 7
7 folds, SB raises to 4,550, Hero calls 2,550
Flop (10,900) J J 5
SB bets 4,850, Hero calls 4,850
Turn (20,600) J J 5 3
SB checks, Hero bets 8,210, SB calls 8,210
River (37,020) J J 5 3 T
SB checks, Hero

Sunday storm, 6300 to go (6000 itm). Don't remember what avg stack is at this point but hero is in top 12 I believe.

I don't normally do this, since they're unnecessary, but felt this was an okay spot. 90% of the time I'm still folding pre here as usual. But at the moment we're near bubble, hero has been playing fairly snug, and running well.

Once he calls turn, I expect him to 99+ or big club in his hand. Our river options are clearly to shut down, bet value size, or overbet jam.

I'm sure many won't like the fact I even tried this, but, putting that aside, thoughts for river?

6 Comments

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chigh1 9 years, 11 months ago

I think KcJ or QcJ would play like this also. I cant really see many hands that called the turn fold on a brick river. Right?

chrisjammed 9 years, 11 months ago

Agree with chigh1, there are way more combinations of hands that get to the river and call, since villain is playing well and is snug then you only have 2 options, shut down or make a value sized bet which would be on the small side since villain is playing perfectly to the jam. Work out how many combos that get there that will call and likewise how many hands get there and fold on river? That could give you a clearer idea and best play?

Rapha Nogueira 9 years, 11 months ago

You are repping very thin on triple barreling this board. Given your preflop range you need to be betting quite large if you use this strategy. This hand category doesn't seem to fit a bluffing range. Just because a player is capped doesn't mean he is not calling. To really exploit a capped range you need to fire pot sized to overbet sizings.

FaceMyAlterEgo 9 years, 10 months ago

Preflop I actually think that your call is ok, but I also prefer a 3bet. Flop is just a very clear fold. Once you do get to the turn, I think your bet is +ev. On the river it is very player dependent.

@RN: I don't think we are repping that narrow, we rep a ton of flushes given that we defend any2 suited (~40combos), + almost all Jx (~65 combos) + 55, 33 = ~111 valuecombos.
HOWEVER: If we float 72 of spades here, we have a TON of floats, so we def. need to take care not to overbluff. We dont have any blockers, but does not seem to important in that spot, since we also not block any of the obvious folding hands, like Acx. Holding a high club other then the A would still be of value though.

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