Riverdecision deep in pokerstars.fr major
Posted by Espen Sørlie
Posted by
Espen Sørlie
posted in
Mid Stakes
Riverdecision deep in pokerstars.fr major
BB: FlatUr3bet: 935612
UTG: Espa0: 682992
LJ: icewoman_82: 341526
HJ: ^FrenchFishh: 465415
CO: juju02100: 530411
BN: asamus: 737602
SB: rbkk442: 367141
UTG: Espa0: 682992
LJ: icewoman_82: 341526
HJ: ^FrenchFishh: 465415
CO: juju02100: 530411
BN: asamus: 737602
SB: rbkk442: 367141
Villain in question had been at my table for all of day 2. Just from his screen name and his betsizing/aggression before this hand I assumed he would be some kind of euroreg. I don't have any history with him before this tournament, but this is the 3rd or 4th time he has 3bet me and I have folded every time.
Preflop
(21000)
(7 Players)
Espa0 was dealt
9
9
Espa0 raises 14000 to 28000, icewoman_82 folds, ^FrenchFishh raises 32445 to 60445, juju02100 folds, asamus folds, rbkk442 folds, FlatUr3bet folds, Espa0 calls 32445
Espa0 raises 14000 to 28000, icewoman_82 folds, ^FrenchFishh raises 32445 to 60445, juju02100 folds, asamus folds, rbkk442 folds, FlatUr3bet folds, Espa0 calls 32445
He has been fairly aggro all around so I think he can be light here a decent amount. I see merits to both 4betting and flatting but decided to flat mainly because I don't think we can get it in profitably.
Flop
(99890)
T
3
T
(2 Players)
Espa0 checks,
^FrenchFishh bets 67465,
Espa0 calls 67465
Turn
(234820)
T
3
T
7
(2 Players)
Espa0 checks,
^FrenchFishh checks
River
(234820)
T
3
T
7
A
(2 Players)
Espa0 checks,
^FrenchFishh bets 63445,
Espa0 raises 489887 to 553332,
^FrenchFishh folds
The effective stack before his riverbet is 335,755, he has to call 272,310. I feel like we have all 3 options here:
call: it is a good bluffing card for him and if we think he can 3b a decent amount light pre he gets here like this with many possible bluffcombos
fold: He has a decent amount of aces in his range and is betting really small which seems valuey
shove: I would probably play all my strong hands like this given the river, and his range is kind of capped after checking turn (doesn't mean he never has a ten or better but I think he def would bet turn most of the time with them. And his betsizing looks more like a weakish hand allthough I could be wrong about that). It is also hard for him to hero me deep in a soft major when I haven't really battled back at all against him before this.
Thoughts on all streets are appreciated, but mostly want to know what you think about the river.
call: it is a good bluffing card for him and if we think he can 3b a decent amount light pre he gets here like this with many possible bluffcombos
fold: He has a decent amount of aces in his range and is betting really small which seems valuey
shove: I would probably play all my strong hands like this given the river, and his range is kind of capped after checking turn (doesn't mean he never has a ten or better but I think he def would bet turn most of the time with them. And his betsizing looks more like a weakish hand allthough I could be wrong about that). It is also hard for him to hero me deep in a soft major when I haven't really battled back at all against him before this.
Thoughts on all streets are appreciated, but mostly want to know what you think about the river.
Final Pot
Espa0
wins 415960
Loading 19 Comments...
Out of curiosity, assuming you got here this way, how do you feel about shoving AQ for value?
From his point of view his bet is a great river induce. Thought about this a fair bit when I have a capped range vs a good opponent, but usually end up just going for value ha.
I think after he bets so small people talk themselves into hero calling it off more often than not vs unknowns [although less so vs an all in then a smaller c/r, tournament life and all that, so wp on sizing there imo] simply because people do spaz a lot vs small betsizes in some spots, so unless you have history and villain respects you I don't like river play. I would probably either fold or call otr without a strong read I could get him off an ace. Really depends on villains preflop play and if I think villain is cheeky enough to fake value-bet bluff the river or not.
Jamming AQ for value sounds interresting. I see what you're thinking sam about a bluff being bad if we can valueshove AQ, but I don't really agree. The point is that we have the best hand so often with AQ otr, so the few times we get herocalled by a worse ace we get additional value. That doesn't mean jamming 99 as a bluff isn't a +ev play. As I said he is going to fold so often.
How wide is he pre? The wider he is the more hands he has to bluff and the more likely he's the type of player to bluff them. It also gives him more aces, so... What's the worst he's value-betting and what does that range do to a shove? It's important to know whether he has A5s or not and whether that's calling the shove or not. Different players will do different things depending on what they think of you and your line. If he's not folding much of his value range to our shove then we can start to consider calling, especially with the great price we're getting. How likely is he to play JJ-KK like this? This is really important because I think these are hands that will fold to your shove almost 100% of the time so him having these is great for our bluff, but some people will bet the turn with them. Would he ever slowplay trips+ on the turn? Probably not, but it's possible.
My major concern is that you're not repping very much. You're repping a ten (ats? jts? t9s?). None of those are even guaranteed (or likely?) to call pre. I guess you could have 33 or 77 although 33 seems likely to fold pre. You said you could have AQ, which is true, and he might believe that too, but it still shoves pre sometimes, and still just flats river sometimes so even that is discounted. AK shoves pre, and AJ is a pretty borderline river shove for value if it called pre. So given all this I just don't really think the villain should be making a hero fold with an ace, given he took such a weak line and has to be aware of it. It's not that I think he's inducing, so much that I think he just might play A8 like this and then realize you can definitely be bluffing and he looks weak and call. I think I would seriously consider calling his river bet, but I really only like the shove against someone strongly weighted towards JJ-KK or someone that you have a strong read will fold an ace to you (which I don't think he should).
I don't think he'd have JJ-AA in his range very often. A player like this who bets large on a 10 3 10 flop is almost always going to bet the 7h turn with these hands. He also probably just checks back the river with JJ-KK. So, that gives me less incentive to check-shove the river since I doubt these hands are in his range much. Also, with this type of player I think 10x+ will value bet larger on the river, so his bet seems super weak to me. I also tend to think he'd bet slightly more with Ax.
His wide 3 betting pre, his flop sizing and turn check just really make me think he's on total air or picked up some equity on the turn and is now making a cheap stab on the river. I could only check-shove river if I really, really thought he would be capable of laying down Ax and I'm not sure this type can.
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