River Spot in Sunday 500

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River Spot in Sunday 500

UTG2: Jon Doe: 0
UTG3: FHstyles: 437409
LJ: AZAZELLL0: 188868
HJ: hibachi41 is sitting out: 126091
CO: blumenkind53: 362894
BN: TheHood: 150579
SB: Milana Jones: 90537
BB: cruiserR1200: 98367
UTG: gray31: 212345
UTG1: Festivuss: 281699
Preflop (9000) (9 Players)
gray31 was dealt 8 7
gray31 raises to 12000, Festivuss raises to 26700, FHstyles folds, AZAZELLL0 folds, Jon Doe folds, blumenkind53 folds, TheHood folds, Milana Jones folds, cruiserR1200 folds, gray31 calls 14700
Flop (62400) 6 7 7 (2 Players)
gray31 checks, Festivuss checks
Turn (62400) J 6 7 7 (2 Players)
gray31 bets 28765, Festivuss calls 28765
River (119930) J J 6 7 7 (2 Players)
gray31 bets 68765, Festivuss raises to 225634
On the river I have 87k behind, pot is about 350k. Table is pretty soft so I think open is fine. I think he is light here pre-flop a decent amount of the time and considered 4betting. Really only interested in comments on the river though. Only reads are that Festivuss has been pretty active and has been 3betting a decent amount. Do you bet river, if so how big? As played do you fold to shove? I thought he would bet his Jx hands on the flop quite a bit, with the possibility of him being more inclined to check back AJ and JJ. Regardless, I think it's pretty tough to bluff here with basically no history, especially when I can have Jx in my range quite a bit.

21 Comments

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John Moss 12 years, 3 months ago
chk/call river. he will have a jack a good chunk of the time. He will bet his missed draws while you leading river only gets value from a tiny range of hands. As played I fold river b'c I dont think he is checking back flop w/ a hand that has no showdown value 89, 95 etc. Also it is less likely he is 3betting 1 of these hands.he has AJ most of time
also this is a 4bet or fold preflop. If he has been active making it 60k preflop would jam his stack and he would be forced into a push/fold mode
Rupert Elder 12 years, 3 months ago
I think check calling the river is a big mistake. His hand mostly looks like some dumb A high that decided to 3 bet (KQ, AQ, AJ or some random silly hand). I think AK is the most likely hand to check back the flop. Our hand also is fairly disguised. I think we can get A high to call the river quite often. I would call.
Aggro Squid 12 years, 3 months ago
Check calling is horrible here. He can bluff raise if he thinks we're betting the turn with air and double barreling. Jacks also make up a small portion of his range if we include hands like AK KQ AJ AT KJ never mind some weird air he can be repping. He also could be donking around with a flush draw and be raising. I think it's a mistake to not value bet the river when he can have so many hands (maybe Axhh) which could consider calling. He also has so much air in his raising range that such a small portion of his range is Combinations of Js and this coupled with the pot odds we're getting makes it a call in my opinion.
Jason Lavallee 12 years, 3 months ago
Because of his perceived weak range I think he can assume we are valuebetting fairly wide in this spot, so bet/folding 7x feels disgusting, that added to the fact that he probably cbets nearly 100% with his Jx combos, maybe checking back AJ some of the time.

He's creative enough to cry and call IMO.
Matt Wakeman 12 years, 3 months ago
eek. Not sure what to think here. If you were to construct a range preflop I don't actually think it would be super wide given the stacks in the blinds... So it's very possible that he has limited Jx combos to begin with here...

In saying that, I think the way you played the hand was fine and fold the river. He is a reg and knows you're getting over 4-1 on river vs a jam when your range is not capped in any way.

I don't really expect him to turn Ax into a bluff, I think he would call with that a lot. If we take the Ax out of his range, the amount of hands he can actually have on the river to bluff with is quite slim.
Ryan Van Sanford 12 years, 3 months ago
I'm pretty outclassed here but I'll give it a shot. It seems unlikely that a J would check the flop, except for possibly AJ. I think something to consider is our range isn't polarized so we can be value betting pretty wide here. If he ever turns A high into a bluff to get us off our weakish range I think we need to call.
Owen Shiels 12 years, 3 months ago
Honestly I dont see many combos of Js that would check behind this flop. There are 8 combos of AJ and the slight possability of 1 combo of JJ that he might ch behind. I think he would tend to bet all other Js on the flop like you said. I doubt he turn A hi into a bluff here. The only hands I can think he might turn into a bluff here are 22 through 55 though obv I dont know if he is the kinda player to a) 3b those in this position pre and b) Check back the flop with these. Uuuugghhh its a confusing hand. I think I'm leaning towards bet/folding the river since I think there are really no hands I can say for certain he might turn into a bluff here.

What do you think about a weak lead on the flop though? Or would that look fishy to him with what he knows of how you play?
Randy (rh300487) 12 years, 3 months ago
I think leading the flop would only be good if you have this in your overal game plan in 3bets pots like rounder63 is doing a lot. Else I think when gray would donk here it would look strong more often then weak, esp UTG vs +1 and esp. vs this villain.
Randy (rh300487) 12 years, 3 months ago
I like the open PF but 100% a fold vs the 3bet; way to fancy to play here OOP. Esp when you believe hes got a wide range.

On the river it's just a huge sigh and I think he'll show up a fair amount with AJo.
I'll still call because that's the only hand he tries to represent and when we donk a turned J and the river comes another J. The odds of us have a J in our hand are getting a lot smaller.

I'll give villain enough credit to read our hand range as 88-TT, not a lot of 7x and the only thing he'll assume we will bet/call with is Jx.

Besides I give enough credit to villain to grab his balls and shove AK here instead of hero calling and try to fold the bottom of our value range.. Which would make me call.
Rhys (floppinhel) 12 years, 3 months ago
Super interesting hand. I 100% think he's going to be cbetting all of his Jx preflop bluffs here with generally the intention of betting multiple streets as a bluff - just as a standard. Briefly ignoring the mathematical unlikelihood of him having quads I would be way more concerned about us losing to JJ then any other Jx hand - I feel he's going to check back the vast majority of his pairs on 776r (especially nutted pairs AA KK QQ and maybe JJ), as this deep two streets of value seems most likely from your 2 pair hands and offers you the chance to improve to a still worse hand and may induce 2 streets of bluffs - obviously this suggests some pretty brutal lack of balance in his spot but i don't even think its close to being bad being unbalanced in such a rare spot deep in a major.

I also think he will check back AK and maybe AQ a reasonable amount of the time (sure this means AJ pops in every now n then too but negligible to AK/AQ regarding how often he will 3b AJ as standard and further not cbet flop. It's super tempting for him to call call with these a high hands on this board but with river stacks as they are and with how strong jamming looks and how tight it should supposedly make your bet calling range he is getting a joke sick price on bluffing you off your weaker value hands (AA KK QQ TT 99 88, 7x???? lol). IF he thinks A high is close on river and is leaning towards calling i think jamming is significantly better for this spot it puts you in even with a hand as strong as yours. (Havent got a lot of history with him to know how capable he is of something like this)

I would still 100% value bet and use your sizing but the main reason is to get max value from AA KK QQ TT rather than necessarily Ax - unless he's going to bet call river with these hands we get way more from our own sizing and its not even unreasonable to see him hero check back some of that range.

I think we get shown JJ a greater amount that we want to but yeah I would 100% be calling river and I doubt I fold any hand that i had bet for value on the river (although i guess not now against anyone reading this thread)



fwiw id lean towards folding preflop 35bbs deep here, but am in no way completely against calling as its cool to have a non nutted/broadway flatting range here. (i realise this isnt river thoughts)
meatyfubu 12 years, 3 months ago
Not 100% sure how the villian perceives you, but given how shallow you are playing 30 bbs, I wouldn't mind donk betting the flop, I realise we are in a vacuum so you do not know his post flop tendencies but I believe a flop donk could quite easily induce some action. Your range more often will make up mid pair type hands which he may feel, you are willing to bet fold. I don't know how optimal the play is and perhaps the bet is very polarized but this shallow I think it may be a decent way to play it. As played the decision is very difficult however as played, I think I just wake up with a call
Cary Pall 12 years, 3 months ago
Given the stacks, I don't think he necessarily has to c-bet all of his Jx hands. He probably realizes his c-bet will be called (or raised) by a lot of your pre flop flatting range on this type of flop. Given the fact that you fired both turn/river and you appear committed, I just don't see him shoving anything worse than a jack here. Your line looks really strong.

Maybe bet a bit smaller on river to get value from QQ-AA, Ax, etc. and fold to shove? ...or check to induce a bluff, lose min vs. jack, and possibly induce QQ-AA to value bet?
Benjamin Wilinofsky 12 years, 2 months ago
Bet the river much smaller than this so you can be excited about calling when he jams. If you make it closer to 46.5K you look like you're thin value-ing 88-TT and he's going to be less inclined to call with A-high and more inclined to bluff with it.
flatbreadpizza 12 years, 2 months ago
Open utg can't be good if you think hes 3betting light enough to be able to call a 3bet.

I like your line and sizing throughout the hand.

Pretty gross spot. I like a fold though. He would have to be turning a high into a bluff and you certainly can't discount kj qj taking a check flop line completely. I dont hate a call but just chip ev wise I feel this is a really gross fold.
z0fman 12 years, 2 months ago
i like the open and id fold vs the 3bet as i think its tough to try to outplay him from out of position..on the river i think he might be getting tricky enough of the time to make this a call....anyway i wanna point out something minor i noticed in the hh...hows its converted the J turn and J river are shown before the 677 on the river...shouldnt they be after it? bug in the hh converter?
Kempe4ever 12 years, 1 month ago
Benjamin Wilinofsky: "If you make it closer to 46.5K you look like you're thin value-ing 88-TT and he's going to be less inclined to call with A-high and more inclined to bluff with it."

Y + he could assume we are blockbeting w/ A-high, if we go even a little smaller
pillow100 11 years, 11 months ago
as played pre I like donking the flop shouldnt as its unlikely we have any 7s and people dont give you credit for donking fullhouses/quads although your donking range would be quite unbalanced, you could get a whole lot of spew from the weaker part of his range, as played I think bet to induce/call > check/call > ever folding given how we got there
lugubre 11 years, 11 months ago
Nah... I'd call and expect to win 40-45% of the time.
In my opinion Festivuss is quite likely thinking that YOU are only calling with a J in your hand, despite your riverbet which appears to be to big for numerous reasons. If he arrives at this conclusion he likes your too big river bet even better (since it will win him even more chips if you fold).

His range is so wide here and yes - he might have a J or even JJ. But he could have almost anything as far as I see it.

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