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River call against solid reg in a $82r Saty

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

River call against solid reg in a $82r Saty

Hey All,

This is a hand that I played last night in the $82r Saty to APPT Melbourne event. Interested to know your thoughts as in game I assumed this is was a snap call, however after reflecting on it, it may not have been that straight forward.

Anyway..

We are playing 6 handed

Blinds 40/80

Hero - $4163
Good Reg - $3348
Fun player - $1308 - been limping all over the show with a wide range

UTG (fun player) limps for 80, fold fold fold, SB Hero (AA) raises to 240 , BB GR calls 240, UTG calls

Pot = 720

Flop - 5d 2d 9c

Hero bets 448, Call, Call

At this point im really not bothered about the UTG player, however I think the BB can have a range of 77/88/99/1010/JJ/QQ/AKdd/AQdd with sometimes KK but most likely 4 bets pre. I think he folds most under pairs pre and KQ's KJs etc

He might raise this flop somethings with QQ/JJ/KK but I think calling his full range is decent.

Pot = 2068

Turn - 5s

Hero checks (I check here to induce worse hands to think they are good and to essentially turn my hand into more combos of AK/AQ which has completely wiffed the flop and giving up).

BB bets 650, UTG calls all in 620, Hero calls.

The reason why i dont shove here is that I think my hand is weighted to value hands when i c/j this turn. Its very unlikely I am doing this with 88/77/AK/AQ/9x so i think i fold out alot of his smaller pairs. I also dont think he is on a FD anymore as im not sure b/c with KQdd or AKdd here is that great for him, probably bad. So I think his new range is 88/99/1010/JJ/QQ.

Should i be C/J this turn?

Pot - $3924

River 10c

Hero checks, BB goes all in for $2094

Now thinking about his shoving range, I think we can discount bluffs as i don't think he has enough missed diamond draws if any after playing the hand this way. He would check back 77/88 and go all in with 99/1010/KK. I think we can argue a case that he actually checks back his JJ/QQ some of the time as I am not calling off with any worse hands most of the time (as i either have boats with smaller PPs or missed draws which cant call).

So given that he jams 99/1010/KK and sometimes JJ/QQ can we argue a case to fold AA a reasonable amount of the time. Given I dont have the A it makes a call better imo.

Would be interested to know your thoughts.

Cheers in advance.

3 Comments

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LZ11 8 years, 10 months ago

surprised nobody has commented! Pretty sick spot, at first I thought snap but then you kind of talked me out of it! He has no reason to bluff he if he missed because utg is all in so there is nothing for him to gain. I think he checks back his 6s-8s on the turn in the hope that utg will jam and it will give him more info to see what you will do. A5 could be in his range also but the flop call would be pretty light since your line is pretty strong and there is a player behind all be it a fish. 18 combos of JJ-KK v 9 combos of boats (assuming our good friend doesn't play the 105o etc :P. It's sticky but its a call IMO. I would have value bet small the river by the way since he has no reason to bluff with utg all in and no side pot and he will pay off with almost any decent hand where as he checks back any middle pair, 9, j10d etc

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