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River call against solid reg in a $82r Saty

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

River call against solid reg in a $82r Saty

Hey All,

This is a hand that I played last night in the $82r Saty to APPT Melbourne event. Interested to know your thoughts as in game I assumed this is was a snap call, however after reflecting on it, it may not have been that straight forward.

Anyway..

We are playing 6 handed

Blinds 40/80

Hero - $4163
Good Reg - $3348
Fun player - $1308 - been limping all over the show with a wide range

UTG (fun player) limps for 80, fold fold fold, SB Hero (AA) raises to 240 , BB GR calls 240, UTG calls

Pot = 720

Flop - 5d 2d 9c

Hero bets 448, Call, Call

At this point im really not bothered about the UTG player, however I think the BB can have a range of 77/88/99/1010/JJ/QQ/AKdd/AQdd with sometimes KK but most likely 4 bets pre. I think he folds most under pairs pre and KQ's KJs etc

He might raise this flop somethings with QQ/JJ/KK but I think calling his full range is decent.

Pot = 2068

Turn - 5s

Hero checks (I check here to induce worse hands to think they are good and to essentially turn my hand into more combos of AK/AQ which has completely wiffed the flop and giving up).

BB bets 650, UTG calls all in 620, Hero calls.

The reason why i dont shove here is that I think my hand is weighted to value hands when i c/j this turn. Its very unlikely I am doing this with 88/77/AK/AQ/9x so i think i fold out alot of his smaller pairs. I also dont think he is on a FD anymore as im not sure b/c with KQdd or AKdd here is that great for him, probably bad. So I think his new range is 88/99/1010/JJ/QQ.

Should i be C/J this turn?

Pot - $3924

River 10c

Hero checks, BB goes all in for $2094

Now thinking about his shoving range, I think we can discount bluffs as i don't think he has enough missed diamond draws if any after playing the hand this way. He would check back 77/88 and go all in with 99/1010/KK. I think we can argue a case that he actually checks back his JJ/QQ some of the time as I am not calling off with any worse hands most of the time (as i either have boats with smaller PPs or missed draws which cant call).

So given that he jams 99/1010/KK and sometimes JJ/QQ can we argue a case to fold AA a reasonable amount of the time. Given I dont have the A it makes a call better imo.

Would be interested to know your thoughts.

Cheers in advance.

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