QQ 12 BB, BU: Opening, is it always optimal to go for the highest chip expectation when far from the $?
Posted by REPO105-108
Posted by REPO105-108 posted in Low Stakes
QQ 12 BB, BU: Opening, is it always optimal to go for the highest chip expectation when far from the $?
BN: 3,568 (Hero)
SB: 11,882
BB: 6,250
UTG: 14,189
UTG+1: 15,670
MP: 15,101
SB wins and shows a flush, Ace high.
SB wins 7,636
Hello,
I'm definitely attempting to increase my short stack knowledge (pre money bubble) so please if you have any recommendations for readings videos let me know. Additionally, as I'm a novice I'm now trying to write out ev calculations, so if i laid something out incorrectly please give me feedback so I can make the necessary adjustments.
So I was wondering in theses situations if its optimal to just open shove or is there merit in really trying to squeeze the most amount of cev when your far from the $ in a tourney?
Given the probability distribution and payoffs are as follows:
1) Assumption is that I'm never folding in this situation (e.g. unopened, bu 12bb with QQ with no ICM factors)
So given I shove and v folds: ev=+2.5 bb 96% of the time ( The 96% of the time I got from the base line equation for any one given pocket pair is (4/52) x (3/51) = (12/2652) = (1/221) ? 0.45% x 6 pocket paris (tt+) + AKs/oand AQs/o V would call with those hands.
Given that I somewhat know players tendencies, Sb i know will call with approx top 23% of hands if i min raise so and will play fit or fold post flop.
We min raise and V calls 14.78% of the time and out of that 15% of the time, I win 70% of the time and lose 30% of the time (equity calculator of QQ vs 23% of hands)
0.70(8.6bb)+ 0.30 (-3.3bb) 6+-1= +5BB. I'm aware that the equity calculator gives me the equity for F,T, and R- i actually super love if someone math oriented can explain the concepts on how to get the equities on a random flop only ; I reckon that i may have laid this out wrong because it calculates the total based on all streets? So on average this play will net me 2.5 bb more than just shoving.. I know that if this was a single table and if I had been shoving and then suddenly min-raise any estute player will generally fold as it usually screams monster, but just wanted to get a sense of its best to min raise as it mathematically makes and thus over the long run I'm not optimizing if I just shove? Also by min-raising don't I give V more chances to make a mistake by calling too wide, and therefore I'm getting better value out of my premium hands? Heres two examples of where i min--raised vs shoved. PokerStars Hand #156399767595: Tournament #1618868930, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (200/400) - 2016/07/24 17:13:58 ET Table '1618868930 413' 9-max Seat #9 is the button Seat 1: DJS0959 (17013 in chips) Seat 2: Ellis3377 (11988 in chips) Seat 3: TORO_56_56 (9020 in chips) Seat 4: ALEX 1326187 (20208 in chips) Seat 5: HUSTLheR0 (4579 in chips) Seat 6: jackito123 (22347 in chips) Seat 7: fegtitri (6890 in chips) Seat 8: ier24 (14996 in chips) Seat 9: DarkWinDuk (10840 in chips) DJS0959: posts the ante 40 Ellis3377: posts the ante 40 TORO_56_56: posts the ante 40 ALEX 1326187: posts the ante 40 HUSTLheR0: posts the ante 40 jackito123: posts the ante 40 fegtitri: posts the ante 40 ier24: posts the ante 40 DarkWinDuk: posts the ante 40 DJS0959: posts small blind 200 Ellis3377: posts big blind 400 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to HUSTLheR0 [Ac Ah] TORO_56_56: folds ALEX 1326187: folds HUSTLheR0: raises 500 to 900 jackito123: calls 900 fegtitri: folds ier24: folds DarkWinDuk: folds DJS0959: folds Ellis3377: folds *** FLOP *** [Kd Ks 3c] HUSTLheR0: checks jackito123: checks *** TURN *** [Kd Ks 3c] [3h] HUSTLheR0: bets 3639 and is all-in jackito123: folds Uncalled bet (3639) returned to HUSTLheR0 HUSTLheR0 collected 2760 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 2760 | Rake 0 Board [Kd Ks 3c 3h] Seat 1: DJS0959 (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 2: Ellis3377 (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 3: TORO_56_56 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: ALEX 1326187 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: HUSTLheR0 collected (2760) Seat 6: jackito123 folded on the Turn Seat 7: fegtitri folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: ier24 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: DarkWinDuk (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
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