Probablity question
Posted by sean54
Posted by
sean54
posted in
High Stakes
Probablity question
Wizard needed to verify that im dong theese calcs right.
Let's assume 30k mtt hands. I wanna calculate the probability of bb/100 is < 2
bb/100 = 2
ev bb/100 = 8
stdv bb/100 = 70
Central limit theorem can be applied, right?
Is this formula correct? Should I use 30k/100 or just 30k?
t = (2-8) / (70/3k^0.5)
And then look up t in a z-table? (t will obv be very cloose to z coz of the large sample)
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Figured it out. Should be like this:
Standard error = 7 / 30000^0.5
z = 2-8 / Standard error
What do you want to calculate, it seems like you mix up your "true" winrate with your "ev bb" winrate.
You should take the "stdv bb" of your "ev bb" and apply CLT on that winrate.
If all rates are in "/100" units it is easier to convert them all to "/1" and then run math.
I would like to calculate the probability of having < 2 bb/100 when my ev bb is 8. Yes I realized it was simpler to use /1 than /100.
But your'e saying i'm doing it wrong when I use stdv bb insted of stdv ev bb? Could you please explain why? And I didn't find that stat in HM2, is it possible to calc manually?
Your total variance should be the variance from your allins plus the variance from all other pots.
What you also can do is estimate your "ev bb stdv" as a percentage of your overall "bb stdv" and go from there. That is easier to do if you can't find these specific stats in HEM.
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