I like the flop check since it is quite hard for him to fold on this board, specially with the J and 9 and the overcards to 2nd and 3rd pair that may come hit a lot his range (2p and gutters) and probably doesn't increase fold equity. I check back turn with some frequency since there is absolutely no fold equity but being like close to the bottom of my range and improved a bit in equity I may bet but probably not that large. I may go for 8k-10k. I can't rep really strong if I am not slow playing this board very often, which I am probably not. River is much better for your perceived range than his so I like betting large, 40k is good.

He never has worse for value (he might x/r turn 86s/85s or even 3bet pre) and he probably has showdown value to check twice, so lets assume this. I don't think he can turn profitably Jc into a bluff specially against a pretty strong range that you bet large twice after checking back A high flop. For this to be a snap call (from a pure exploitation view) he needs to be bluffing non two pair Ac hands (Ac8x-Ac2x) that he may figure out that are not good against the two bets that you make on this spot. I guess this takes a bit more time also than he took (at least for me hehe).

Assuming three different ranges based on how not appealing this is for a bluffing spot, against two large bets and very little fold equity:

Supposing he is going bananas against you (what I don't expect), bluffing with 100% frequency Kc/Qc/Jc that he probably gets to this river: you have 45% equity which leads to an easy call.

A bit of an optimistic range to x/s this river is: KcQc, QcJc, Ac2c-Ac8c, JcTx, QcJx, Kc9x, KcJx that blocks at least sets and flushes combinations that for the price that you are getting river you probably need to defend sets also. You have 39% equity.

The most likely range that I would think I am against is: KcQc, QcJc, Ac2c-Ac8c, JcTh, JcTd, QcJh, QcJd, KcJx (red combos just to adjust frequency). You have 30% equity. You are getting almost 6-1... Yes, I am calling and praying that he shows me a bluff. I admit I rarely see it on spots like this.

Don't ever expect to be good here. Pretty sick to have to fold a backdoor flush with so little to add.

I mean, you clearly rep a flop slowplay or a flush ; you could bluff this spot, most def, but isn't it super risky for Dylan to take the spot as a bluff? Sure he gets a great price for his potential bluff, if it works (it surely looks uber-strong). But it's day 3 of the EPT.
If he folds river he still has a very playable stack, and since you're close-ish to the money, stack conservation should be of uttermost importance.
And that's en EPT ; I assume that makes almost everybody more risk-adverse than smaller MTTs (although some good players will be even more aggro because of the added FE).

I just can't picture Dylan bluffing this spot, that seems like strategic suicide. And in this spot I weigh strategic considerations way more than anything.

Interesting spot.

I think he would 3b KJs+,KQo,AJo+,ATs+, 88+ for value, so his flatting range is going to be fairly weak, mostly hands that he doesnt want to 3b/f or turn into a bluff, so i think not cbetting the flop is a mistake. Were close to the bottom of our range and aside from having an obvious range advantage otf, can barrel any club, K, Q, 8, 7 ott which is almost half the deck.And by checking back, we pretty much have to give up ott if don`t pick up any additional equity.

As played after checking back, our range looks like Jx, QQ, KK, so i like the turn barrel and sizing is fine.

Otr were no longer value betting all of those hands and are pretty much repping a backdoor flush exclusively, especially with your sizing (which i think is slightly on the larger side when were targetting a weaker range and should be bet/folding).So even though we block hands like JTcc-ATcc our line looks very much like Jxcc-Kxcc (think hed expect us to cb Txcc), so i dont think he jams worse then a nut flush over this sizing and since we don`t expect him to flat too many off suit Ax hands that he turns into a bluff now, should be a pretty easy b/f imo.The only concern is that he might expect us to b/f with the rest of our cc range that takes this line 64,65,75,76,86,87,97,98cc-maybe wider with your image, but still would be somewhat of an optimistic bluff from his perspective.

Very interesting to see how you guys analyze hands... very astute and probably better than I can offer.

Anyways just my humble opinion on this situation:

Few questions I would ask myself:

How does he perceive you? Does he know that you like to steal a wide range from the button? Does he know your game well? How well do you know his game? How does he adjust to your game?

I am sure Dylan knows your game pretty well, and would adjust accordingly to make life really tough!

FLOP: AJ9c

No continuation bet? Right there I would take away a huge chunk of your upper range. So I would not put you on any aces or KJ/QJ type hands. I would assume you would continuation bet with those hands so he does not draw out for free on you. Right there I would polarize your range and put you on a monster or nothing.

Turn: 7c

I would believe your range here consists of combo draws, flush draws, straight draws, bluffs, and in the very rare case you were slowplaying a set.

River:3c

This card would not scare me that much. I would feel this card hits your range a very small amount of the time.I would think most of your TC-AC(Suited T of Clubs and up) would bet the flop. Thus I would never put you on a flush higher than 98x here. This could be a golden spot to bluff knowing that it is HIGHLY unlikely you have a suited combo higher than a ten.

Please let me know if anything did not make sense... I'll try to explain it further. Just an insight from an amateur.... I'm sure a professional would think about this hand in a completely different way that involves more statistics.

Right, it really depends on the player and their style. Sometimes I fall in the trap of assuming another person will play a hand like I do. For me personally I would take a stab with KJos or cbet with my weak aces, possibly an exploit I need to work on.

Also I take out hands like Qjcc TJcc KTcc, etc because I feel you would almost always cbet the flop with those types of hands. So once we are on the river I would not put you on those type of hands, I would assume you would have led those hands out on the flop.

If I am your opposition I would feel your flush range would be AXcc or 9XCC and lower. Also if I knew you would not want to risk your tournament life with a small flush, I would bluff a high frequency of the time here on the river.

Hi guys. Interesting hand.I´m not to active here, also i´m just an amateur, so here it goes:
Well, If we open T5s i think we should cbet 100% of time.We also have BDFD and BDSD
By checking flop/betting turn, we kinda capped our range to weak Ax/JT type, so we gotta call that river, and hope Dylan turn his Jx (even AcX) into a bluff here. (Agree with Raphael, we´re getting 6:1)
But otoh, don´t expect to see a lot of bluffs, esp after we bomb river, tough spot indeed

Think its WP if you call.

Would need a very specific read on player, that he will never bluff, or raise for value with worse, for me to fold.

Thanks for all the responses. We called and Dylan had QJcc.

Mr Sneeze rly nails it here

We called and Dylan had QJcc.

I might be alone here and no disrespect but to me both his shove and your call seem very optimistic.I guess his shove is "ok" with blockers and if he expects you to b/c with 4x-Txcc suited + never xb Kxcc,Axcc, but still seems somewhat thin when you obviously have a mixed strategy with all of the K2cc-,Axcc.

As for the call, i just think he never floats the turn without some sdv, which i doubt he turns into a bluff otr vs a polarized range or jams with worse, so unless hes pretty sure youll b/f a bunch of your lower flushes i don`t think he turns enough non-flush made hands into a bluff (which are also probably just few combos), to justify calling.

Am i missing something ?

I hear some good pros like to size their later street bets larger because it's the highest chip-EV strategy vs thinking opponents.

Our hand and the board block like every worse flush combo, 86s,84s,82s,64s,62s,42s if he has all those combos even.

Sam, explain me please why is that important to have balanced betting and checking back range there on teh flop vs Dylan. Even if we have unbalanced c-betting range there I don't think he will realise it and adjust enough that it won't make it good bet your'e T5cc on that flop given we have some good turns to barrell aswell. I can't understand that balance thing and is it really important in MTTs?

Hey everyone!

This certainly was a memorable hand against Mr. Squid. I can elaborate a bit of my thought process at the time.
I was certainly expecting Sam to be opening button fairly wide as he had quite a large stack, whereas my stack from the sb was such that most habds I played would be for stacks. Also the big blind was a fairly straightforward and recreational player (he was sitting out multiple hands to celebrate victories with his rail).

These things being said my plan was to not play very aggressively preflop. I wanted the bb to be able to play with us instead of isolating an elite player and also without opening myself up to high variance preflop situations near the bubble.

I expected Sam to have a fairly wide checking back range on this flop. Including many hands with showdown value and some of his air.

I check turn because I believe I do way better vs the range he delayed cbets than the range he would call my turn bet with. Once he bets turn I think he can have some of the Tx he checked back flop with many Ax and a huge variety of Jx. Also he might have Some T8 combos that he did not cbet.

When I make the flush on the river I still believe checking to be best for me because of how weak my range is in general on this river. I'm going to mostly have weak 2p and 1p hands, no straights a few flushes. Thus he can definitely continue to bluff or turn the lower showdown value hands into bluffs.

Once he bets using a large sizing on the river I feel fairly comfortable raising as I would expect him to bet most of his strong Axcc and KTcc on the flop. He can still have some A high flushes and King high flushes certainly, but I feel like he has enough worse flushes, turned sets and straights that he might call with to make jamming profitable.

In his shoes I feel like I would play the hand in the same fashion most of the time. And value bet river with a fairly thinly

im a cash game player and dont know much about tourneys but why we betting the turn so big, like isnt that just about pot turn pot river, doesnt 2/3-3/4 turn size cbet make more sense especially in a tourney.....

I am also curious about betsizing on the turn. Since our delay cbet range represents mostly Jx and weak Ax for value, do we not want to bet more in the 40-60% range? We are prettty capped (other then 77) and Dylan is not necessarily, on this board he might go for a checkraise at a reasonable frequency.

I mean I can have 97, J7, T8 and the like, but i agree lads think with range we should go smaller.

When he checks twice, then c/c, he's always showdown bound and pretty much has one pair, AT/Axs/KJ/QJ/JTs or T9s/98s/88 sometimes and not much else. So if he's bluffing, which showdown bound hand is he bluffing with? AcTx or like KJo w/ one club seem like candidate hands, but he could lead AT on turn some % and at river most ppl either don't even consider cramming or would rather bluff catch. There's a relatively small number of hands he might turn into a bluff vs if he was peeling from the BB for instance, because he's peeling maybe like 10-13% of hands preflop in the SB, maybe he gets to the river with 45 one pair combos, maybe a bit less, probably only 15 combos that contain one club. He's jamming into a range that very much has flushes, including nut flushes (maybe not when you size so big on turn tho). If situation was reversed, how often do you find yourself bluffing? I'm inclined to think he has A6cc/A8cc/KJcc/QJcc a bunch here.