Preflop $3700 WPT, not sure what's best
Posted by Jeff
Posted by
Jeff
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High Stakes
Preflop $3700 WPT, not sure what's best
Just got to this table about 30 mins ago. Have 34k to start the hand at 300/600. Haven't had any cards since we got here, but the table is unbelievably slow so we might have only played 6 or 7 hands. The only hand I've played at this table was the hand right before this when the co opened, I 3 bet a5 off in the sb and he folded. I'm sure he thought I had a much stronger hand than what I did, but not sure how this being the very next hand affects our action.
50ish guy who seems to be stationy and on the passive side opens to 1200 from mp. The hj (co from last hand) 3 bets to 3000. He appears to be a more active type player and could easily be trying to isolate against the opener without having to face a squeeze from the sb (one of the top live players in the world known for being aggro). Co folds and I am on the button with ak spades.
This is a spot that I hate. Flatting the 3 bet feels really blah, but we are on the button, we have too many chips to just rip it in here, but if we get called and miss their ranges should be really strong. Also since we just 3 bet the hj the hand before does that make him more likely to think we are full of shit and 5 bet us if it gets back to him?
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With the spot you are describing, we just got 2 options here:
1) Cold 4betting the AKss.
2) 4bet shoving
I have seen this spot before and will give my point of view of what I think it is the best option here:
Because of the dynamic of the table, as you described, it is likely that you could induce some 5bet bluffs from the hj, but the best option here is to just jam. When we cold 4bet, we are likely getting paid by tons of 99-QQ nd some random stuff from villain. Chances of hitting TP otf are not that high and villain can check shove us on all non A-K flops which would be a very bad result/line for the hand.
On the other hand, we have the option to jam, and I think it is the best one. It might seem they are way too many big blinds for a 4bet shove, but by 4bet shoving we deny our opponent to put as in a tricky spot pre/postflop, and getting him to fold some big pairs it is the best you can do, we also still win tons of chips all the times he's 3bet bluffing.
Otherwise, if villain is type of guy who stacks off TT-QQ to the 4bet shove it might better to just take the fold pre and keeping the edge in the mtt on softer spots. Also remember that even against a AJo+ 99+ ; AKo just has 53% equity while QQ got 60% which is a huge difference
Really dislike 4-bet shoving if we aren't facing some serious ICM decision. 4-betting small and flatting should both create more EV than shoving and with the 3-better seeming to be active i'd 4-bet with a higher frequency than call.
Regarding the stackoff equity-comparison between AKo and QQ, you also have have to factor in card removal, which gives us 55,5% equity with AKo and makes it more likely, that the 3-better is sitting on the bluff part of his range.
Best wishes, Markus
Sigh.. I had a good long post typed out, and I hit the back button... dammit.
Assuming we are the active stack.
Why do you think flatting is "blah"? I think flatting is probably our best option here. We get a top tier hand, somewhat disguised, in position vs an aggro player. With 50bb left in our stack, so we have all sorts of room to manoeuvre post flop. He should absolutely have hands like AJs and random hands like 96s in his 3b range. Don't be scared to play post flop.
4b shoving is never my preferred option. Sure, we pick up the chips all the times he's weak, but when he calls, we are in a bad bad spot. We are NEVER ahead. Flipping for 56BB in this tournament structure is absolutely atrocious. Why anyone wants to subject themselves to that sort of variance is beyond me, but thanks for your donations....
We can achieve the same "Folding out weak 3b's" plan by 4b to a normal size, like 8700.
The only thing worse than 4b shoving is folding. If you are folding AKs to a late position 3b from an aggro player, quit poker. This is not a game for you.
I'll leave you with my favourite GTO quote, because it's relevant here -
"Playing GTO will never be a negative EV decision, however; Always playing GTO will be leaving a lot of EV on the table."
The reason I said flatting feels blah is there's already about 16% of our stack in the middle and with a very tough opponent to our direct left, I feel that gaining those chips will give us a lot more flexibility. I expect to get 3 bet often when I open and am going to have to either play back or play tight. The two players to her left are very tight older passive players, whose blinds are just sitting there waiting to be taken. So I felt like there was a lot of value to taking the hand down now, and also felt that given the last hand I might induce the 3 bettor to spaz with hands like aq aj or kq.
Today I feel like flatting would have been better, but that could be colored by what happened. Nothing exciting, and no bust out, but to me its an awkwardish spot which is why I put it up here. I 4 bet to 7000, the sb took about 2 minutes to fold, and then the passive 50ish opener 5 bet to 20K. The 3 bettor folded, and I folded because I don't think the opener has a 5 bet range beyond aa, and that's what he had, the two red aces.
I don't mind flatting and playing IP with this suited version of AK. There will be many flops we can continue on including things like 2 overs with backdoor draws. This looks like the lower variance play which is fine being that it's still early.
I'd like some more information before I start cold 4- betting this spot. For example: Will he ever just peel a 4-bet OOP and take a flop? Has he shown the tendency to 5-bet in a spot like this?
I'm curious to see more opinions but I feel like flatting could be okay, too.
We're probably never being put on the hand we actually have so we could get paid off on all 3 streets if we flop an ace or king.
We probably are being put in a bunch of midpairs and things like that so we can also fairly easily rep other holdings IP.
One thing I'm curious about is what we are put on, or in this case I am put on. As I said, I've only been at the table for about 30 mins, but that might have only been 6 or 7 hands. The only hand I've played was the one before this when I 3 bet from the sb and the raiser folded. As far as how I look, I'm 43, but probably look a few years younger. I have short hair and shave (intentionally) every day when I play live poker. I always dress like I'm headed out to play golf with a collared shirt. I feel like I get way more credit than I deserve when I 3 or 4 bet because I look so tight, and I take advantage of that. As an example, earlier in the day I opened the CO to 700 at 150/300, a fairly well known and successful tourney pro 3 bet the button to 1500, I 4 bet K10 off to 3300 and he folded and showed me aq off. I can get away with way more "x" bets live than I can online when people look at their HUDs and not at what I present to them.
So would you put that guy on middle pairs as a cold 4 bet if you hadn't seen him play any hands yet?
How many chips do the villians have?
The opener has about 90K. First hand when I got to the table he called a raise in the bb from the player who is the sb in this hand, called two decent sized bets on the the flop and turn and then called a shove on the river when his flopped pair of 4s with 46 off made trips on the river 4. The 3 bettor has about 50K. I haven't seen him do anything that stands out beyond opening a couple of times when it folded to him.
This seems like a rly trivial 4b
But prty gross to run into aa
Prty sure 4b is way >>>> than flatting
Think your fold is quite good vs the cold 5
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