Preflop...
Posted by computerscreen
Posted by
computerscreen
posted in
Low Stakes
Preflop...
SB: 15835
BB: 3840
UTG: 2056
UTG1: 1790
LJ: 3937 (Hero)
HJ: 5925
CO: 9708
BN: 1394
BB: 3840
UTG: 2056
UTG1: 1790
LJ: 3937 (Hero)
HJ: 5925
CO: 9708
BN: 1394
Preflop
(600)
(8 Players)
Hero was dealt
9
3
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, Hero raises to 800, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, Hero raises to 800, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Final Pot
Hero
wins 1400
Loading 72 Comments...
The spew in opening 93o w/ ~10bbs?
This is a clear fold.
but ev and percentag of needed folds to be profitable i cant come up with number zzzzz struggling with numbers
such decision making is umm questionable
Hero wins 1400 ( bb +sb+your raise)
:) so its plus 600 per 1 fold 2 folds its plus 1200
1 fold 1 call is minus 200 tho so u would need 2 folds to be ev plus
Hero risks 800 chips to win 1050 (200sb +400bb + 450antes)?
so is
risk 800 to win 1050 is 250 per 1 fold 1 call but is 1250 if get 2 folds 1 call so maybe worth a risk~ -
but 2 calls or shove over raise is~ -1600+1050 which is - 550
depend table can decide on players stats but never know
yest i had very quiet tbl not defending blinds i raised twice AJ suited from mid and i played nitty and very little which should gave me a credit but i had reraise and a shove both times ~ ppl simply were dealt good cards same tme~ so its v unpredictable
other day i followed ur adviced and i raised crap and had enough folds to make it profitable
it is all very situational so ~ 93 can have bigger ev then aj suited cause i did fold it on reraise and a shove both times
You can just play the strength of your hands if you want a lifetime of mincashes and frustration.
so if hero is getting 1050 for 800 he is getting 1.3125 to 1 on their money?
To turn that into a %...(this is the tricky part for most, scary math)..... 1/(1 + 1.3125) = 43.24%
So we need folds 43.24% of the time to make min raising profitable?
Correct so far?
Why fold a profitable hand like 93o?
but me playing 93o is for me ATM still science fiction ~ i do go crazy and in a hurry or wanna flip to double but thats usually 56 67 78 and 46 and 68 i love~
so it might be perhaps proftable for active player but not nitty 1 ? if you are involved in 40 percent hands or so u can pick many , and many times 39 will work, but if you play as lil hands and i am and u re called often anyway...u cant paly 93 o ~ maybe when i get to be LAG and ppl are insecure with such a person around 93 will be profitable for me too
and i will try it out next time i play 180 ppls turbos and will let u know how did it go
and~ just came to my mind im using hud :D now and imported all hands i played for a year and ~ it showed not sure exact meaning of number~ but it says 93 OFF made me total loss - minus 177160,00 in tournements unlike 68 suited that made me 74002.00 win
For example, if we are on the button, in position, we don't need a post flop hand because 'position is power'. If we are in the cut off but the button is short, we don't need a postflop hand because we will call the short button if he 3bet shoves, and we will play in position vs the blinds if they flat.
We only need to get through 43% of the time....so we add up each of our villains hand ranges...if we are in the cut off we have..... button + sb +bb < 43%. So if there total combined ranges are < 43% we can (and generally should) min raise atc, and fold postflop if we are worried about our cards.
Nobody here wants to know how often we get through?
Heres a sb example....if we have 12bbs with antes bvb and we min raise, the bb has to reshove HALF of the deck 43% for it to not be profitable. That includes t7o, 75s, j4s, if villain doesn't shove theses, then we should min raise 100% in the sb.
when ppl say proofitable in terms of percentage and maths in tournements and MTTS ~ i still cant follow up on how much exactly is that applicable to tournements because so much is situational in tournement~and depandable on stack size position and players around
even if something is 70 percenter if you have utter nit in game opening 3 percent UTG u simply fold AJ no matter its stats and your stack size, or at least i do regardless maths
same applies if you have maniac in bb you simply fold cause u may estimate reshove 80 percent and if you have tight player you may continue min raising every sb
as far how often do we need to get a fold for it to be profitable, i think u said " We only need to get through 43% of the time ~ so i not gonna dispute that i took that as a fact
"its rare you get a chance to be sb vs bb"
Instead of looking at your hands 1 tournament at a time, look at your hands as ALL bb vs sb hands in every tournament. Then you will see we spend much of our poker careers dealing with bb vs sb
"maybe he folds maybe doesnt"
The question is does he fold more than 50%? We don't care if sometimes they call, as long as its less then 50%
"villain in BB most certainly wouldnt reshove on you 43 percent but if he see ur stats opening sb 100 percent he might start"
No villain will not, remember I play 2000 games per month against some of the best turbo grinders in the world. If I raise 100% nobody will 3bet shove the bb with 43%
When was the last time BB shoved 10-12bbs on your sb min raise with T7o? Nobody plays back that much, so we can always min raise 100%
"when ppl say proofitable in terms of percentage and maths in tournements and MTTS ~ i still cant follow up on how much exactly is that applicable to tournements because so much is situational in tournement"
If a situation is profitable you should ALWAYS take it. If math says we will gain chips on average by making a certain play, then we should not worry about sometimes we lose because most of the time we win.
people go wide if they go low~ specially the reg players~ so someone shoving J7 off on M 3 doesnt mean its that players range at all
Until we do that we are just guessing, aren't we?
So we will make an assumption, that each player left to act will play an equal amount of the 43%. That is we will split 43% 5 ways and just observe the result. From what I understand to do that we take the 5th root of .43. If there are 2 left to act we will take the square root, if there are 3 left to act we take the cubed root.
5th root of .43 is .84468 which is the amount of folds we need from each player. So then 1 - .84468 will give us the amount of hands each villain must play which is .1545 or 15.5%.
So each villain must play at least 22+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+. If any villain folds even 1 hand then its profitable with ATC to min raise.
Some villains may play more hands but many will play waaay less, which far makes up for those that are too loose.
Furthermore, if the blinds flat we are happy to cbet any flop as we give ourselves a good price on betting they will fold 2/3 of the time (which they will). So we are not worries about the blinds playing loose. And we can cbet without cards.
whats most important though is how can we say a hand is not profitable preflop without doing this math?
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