Pair + FD @ 3.3K Macau ACOP Warmup
Posted by Didier Guerin
Posted by
Didier Guerin
posted in
High Stakes
Pair + FD @ 3.3K Macau ACOP Warmup
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/4771070 - 3.3k Warmup at 2012 ACOP Macau
(Apologise for the sh**ty replayer. Notes: Ante was 25, therefore pot size on the flop was more around T2800, also my actual stack was somewhere closer to 45k and obv all the other stacks marked as having 30k aren't relevant.)
Flat in the CO is by a presumably good HS-MTT reg, was overly LAG in some spots I thought though, was easily capable of floating (and given how many times he attempted it vs me, more than likely doing so). Therefore, I was less worried about his range in this spot wth the given the action.
The raise on the BTN came from a European guy who had been sitting down for about 30 minutes, he'd done some limping and looked a bit loose-passive, just generally fishy. What was interesting was that he snap raised to 3k OTF, practically as soon as the CO had flatted. (I almost wondered if he noticed the pot wasn't HU).
Anyway, I guess I have a tendency to go a little crazy with pair+FD's, but I assigned him a range of something like this (feel free to correct me!) 99, 88, 55, 33, A8, T8, T8, 98 87, 86, 76, 64 and all AcXc excluding A8/5/3cc + little air. Basically all sets, all nut flush draws, 99 and a lot more top pair combos than usual, given a very limited read that the villain is a weak player, also leading toward me believing that I didn't think there was a whole lot of air in his range. I also include 99 because I believe that the bottom of his pair 3b range pre is likely TT+ pre and that he would raise 99 OTF.
How do you guys proceed from here? Obviously I know that I'm 'never dead' with a pair + FD but I'm looking for some deeper analysis and some thoughts on what the optimal line from here is.
I ended up raising to something like 9875, overepping in the hope to show that I'm commited and avoid what's likely a hugely high variance flip in what was still a soft, live, MTT.
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