on the BB vs 3x BU open, 2 from the Bubble

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on the BB vs 3x BU open, 2 from the Bubble

Blinds: t200/t400 (6 Players) UTG: 2,772
MP: 1,687
CO: 3,544
BN: 5,161
SB: 9,120
BB: 4,716 (Hero)
Preflop (600) Hero is BB with J Q
3 folds, BN raises to 1,200, 2 folds
Final Pot BN wins 1,150

This was a 18man Turbo, 4 paid. Villain had a crazy 8% steal over 200 hands and he suddenly opens 3x. Is it okay to err on the side of caution here and fold this or is it too good? If we call we are going to the flop with a SPR~1.2,it sucks flopping a Q and getting shoved on or having to call a small bet and loose half our stack pretty much. Given our position stack-wise, the fact that payouts are really flat and it sucks to bubble in these 18mans, what should we do?

3 Comments

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DNegs98 5 years, 8 months ago

This is way too strong to fold especially at this stack depth where you're going to realise your equity incredibly well post flop

Risva10 5 years, 8 months ago

Yes we are but is it really worth it, given that a small amount of the time we bust? I understand if I am folding QJo here its almost like I am folding to the money, but he has 8% steal from LP, lets give him 16% from the BU. Still ridiculously tight and its a sudden 3x with the SB covering him. Keep in mind this is a 3.5€ SNG so I expect recreationals to be really transparent with their sizings. Maybe I am overestimating how well I can preserve my stack till the short stacks bust? Please feel free to tell me if you think all of this is wrong.

Sextonhardcastle 5 years, 8 months ago

I hate facing the big button raise. Players are just overly strong pretty often. I think it matters a lot if villain normally uses a different sizing. I always take a note on players who make big raises so i can see if that remains constant or if there's bet sizing tells. If this player normally doesnt 3x I would just fold. You could still just be up against 44 88 TT AK AT etc. Maintaining a stack is important to be able to 3b and get folds or shoving and getting folds

Im not great at sit n go icm but calling means you're very frequently getting all in on the flop or folding and losing a decent chunk of your stack. I dont know what the right answer is as no option seems great here, but I'm ok with folding.

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