Nut straight on turn, opponent leads out on river (my attempt at analysis)
Posted by jamesdmitri
Posted by
jamesdmitri
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Low Stakes
Nut straight on turn, opponent leads out on river (my attempt at analysis)
Hand History for Game 17105550271
NL Texas Hold'em $5.50 USD Buy-in Trny:166677901 Level:17 Blinds-Antes(5K/10K -1.25K) - Wednesday, March 21, 19:45:27 EDT 2018
Table Bounty Hunter 6-Max Turbo-L. $5K Gtd (166677901) Table #68 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6/6
Seat 5: Guam28 ( 492,745 )
Seat 2: Kill6 ( 66,100 )
Seat 1: andygrnn1 ( 175,000 )
Seat 3: dalila211 ( 993,465 )
Seat 4: doberman1116 ( 163,979 )
Seat 6: jamedmitri ( 390,078 )
Trny:166677901 Level:17
Blinds-Antes(5,000/10,000 -1,250)
andygrnn1 posts ante [1,250]
Kill6 posts ante [1,250]
dalila211 posts ante [1,250]
doberman1116 posts ante [1,250]
Guam28 posts ante [1,250]
jamedmitri posts ante [1,250]
dalila211 posts small blind [5,000].
doberman1116 posts big blind [10,000].
* Dealing down cards *
Dealt to jamedmitri [ Td Jc ]
Guam28 calls [10,000]
jamedmitri raises [40,000]
andygrnn1 folds
Kill_6 folds
dalila211 folds
doberman1116 folds
Guam28 calls [30,000]
* Dealing Flop * [ Ac, Qs, Qc ]
Guam28 checks
jamedmitri bets [59,450]
Guam28 calls [59,450]
* Dealing Turn * [ Kh ]
Guam28 checks
jamedmitri checks
* Dealing River * [ 9c ]
Guam28 bets [166,050]
jamedmitri calls [166,050]
Sorry for the formatting, rio isnt working with my hem2 for some reason. I have only been playing for about 2 weeks so I expect to have several mistakes please correct me.
Preflop: UTG limps in which I expect him to do with a huge range, his vpip at this point over about 50 hands was 55 so I expect him to limp with a lot of bad hands. I raise from the HJ 4bb 3bb+1bb for limper with JTo. Now that i think about it JTo is probably too loose here but I expected to be able to take it down postflop if i got a caller from the UTG because he has a huge vpip and 60% fold to cbet.
Flop: I put in the Cbet and size it around 58%, unsure if this flop is dry or wet because of the 2 clubs so i figured 50-70% would be about where I want to be. He calls. I assume his calling range to be around this: TT+, ATs+, JTs+, Tc9c, 9c8c, KTs+, KJo+, QJo+, ATo+. Something like this.
Turn: King comes in on the turn making the straight for me and I feel like i am ahead almost all the time. If i did it correctly, putting it in pokerstove I should have 63% equity vs this range after the turn. I put in the check because I expect him to frequently go with value bets with worse hands and possibly bluff flush draws. He also checks back. I also feel no necessity to build the pot because I expect the river to be very fold/shove. Thinking back maybe I should have led out here to stop the flush from coming in but I didnt feel the need to with the Jc blocker.
River: 9c comes in and assuming the previous equity from pokerstove I now have 70% equity vs the above range even tightening it up a lot I'm still over 60% favourite. Then he oop leads out. I feel like this lead is definitely repping a flush or he has Kc. With the jack of clubs in hand i feel i block the flush. I also think he's trying to get value out of me with some middle strength hands as my check on the turn makes me look weaker. I then expect his lead out range to be around this.
His queenx off range might even be higher because of how loose this guy played preflop. He leads out for 166050 in a 221400 pot, this means i need to be good 166050/553500 or 30% of the time. With my analysis of his range I feel like I am way ahead of 30% a lot of the time.
In summary unsure if I played this 100% perfectly any help would be greatly appreciated. The only real error i can possibly see is my preflop raise but because of the readings i was getting from my Hud i felt like playing a little aggro was correct. This is my first real summary and only have been playing for about 2 weeks any help would be great.
Loading 2 Comments...
Preflop is probably too loose from these positions even against a very loose passive players. If your opponents are any good they may pick up on your too light iso-raises and exploit you hard.
Flop sizing is too big imo. He is probably going to call with a similar range against a smaller sizing so making it bigget does not accomplish much. You mainly want to attack his underpairs here.
Bet this turn. If he was a tight player there could be some arguments for a check but here, he just has too many randoms Axs and Qxs to not go for 3 streets of value. Most players, even the passive ones, will either open raise or limp/reraise with AA QQ AQ KK, maybe also with KQ.
Given the big sizing on the river, I don't mind just calling, but initially you really should go for 3 streets here.
It's great that you're doing your own analysis, definitely a very solid way to learn the game in depth quickly and understand the math/strategy behind decisions.
I largely agree with what Pierre has said. Preflop is likely just a little too loose, and if you're going for the isolation raise you can definitely go smaller. As a tournament gets deeper and stack sizes relative to big blind get more shallow, you can adjust your raise sizes downward. When opening hands most players opt to go for 2x - 2.2x the BB, and when isolating a limp 2.5x - 2.8x should be more than enough. This way you still achieve your goal of getting heads-up to the flop against the weaker player, but leave yourself with a higher stack-to-pot ratio (SPR), giving yourself more maneuverability postflop.
Again, you can choose a smaller flop sizing and achieve the same result - I would go with around 40% pot. On the turn, given that villain may have Ax, Qx, or a flushdraw and you're beating nearly his entire range, you definitely want to bet simply to extract more value from his hands. Even if you think he will valuebet weaker hands and missed flushdraws on the river, you will ultimately miss one street of value (especially from his draws).
If you were to adjust your sizings, bets and pots on various streets may look as follows:
Preflop iso to 25k (Effective stack after that ~365k)
Flop Pot will be ~72k, you bet ~30k (Effective stack after that ~335k)
Turn Pot will be ~132k, you bet ~85k (Effective stack after that ~250k)
River Pot will be ~302k, leaving you with around 80% of the pot
Following your line, despite the big flop bet and because of the missed turn bet, you would have to shove ~260k into a ~220k pot (if you indeed decide to either fold/shove here), making it much harder for villain to commit chips to the pot with a weaker hand.
But again, overall your analysis looks good and is on the right track. Keep it up!
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