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Nitty fold or not, based on hud stats. $22SKO

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Nitty fold or not, based on hud stats. $22SKO

Blinds: t700/t1,400 (9 Players) MP+2: 101,188
CO: 8,726
BN: 22,566
SB: 27,150
BB: 42,076
UTG: 24,662 (Hero)
UTG+1: 35,384
MP: 39,884
MP+1: 51,883
Preflop (2,100) Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to 2,800, 2 folds, MP+1 raises to 7,000, 5 folds, Hero folds
Final Pot MP+1 wins 9,275

So the villain in question I have 1.6k hands on. His 3b vs ep is 6% (18/287) and his fold to 4 bet after 3 bet is 0% (0/10).

This led me to the conclusion that he is never raise folding especially considering his sizing, also he was multi tabling 14 tables which also gave me the impression he wouldn't be making a sneaky 3 bet fold vs utg raise. So I gave him a range of 88+ Ajs + Aqo+. Versus this, aq is a clear chip ev fold.

Am I calculating this correctly or am I assuming too much with this particular sample size. Is it worth considering gambling it up as we will be in bb next hand with only 13bb.

Any comments would be great, also any other hud stats that im not aware of that can help in this spot? Cheers!

There are also ante's that the hand review didn't pick up so pre flop pot is 3675 not 2100.

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