Shove not close, there are no relevant pay jumps, we don't want to let other players into the hand, and vs a middle aged guy they may even fold AQ and will def fold KQ, there's no need to reduce variance here, and shoving has the be the highest ev play, if we had like 70k maybe we could do smthing else but way to short here.

I'm trying to explore some unorthodox lines in MTTs that go against "standard" play. Everyone in the MTT world seems to do the same things and I think part of the edge in these things comes from doing things a little differently. Clearly shoving JJ is +EV and nobody will argue that. But lets say you're up against a standard ABC old guy in the main w/ JJ here. If you give him a tight range of 77+,AJs,AQ+ you have 55%. If you jam and he calls w/ TT+,AQs,AK then he folds 40% of the time and you have 45% equity vs the 60% that he calls. But if you think he'll play super straightforward post flop than you can fold on Ax boards, gain a cbet on T high boards when he one and dones it, lose a cbet on T high boards when he double barrels and you fold, etc. than this may be a better option than just jamming in a flip situation for your tourney life. Obviously there are other variables such as letting people behind in but this is also countered by someone squeezing worse behind and having utg fold (or if he rejams mucking).

If you put yourself in the villian's shoes and someone flats off of a 17bb stack what do you put them on? It's kind of an uncomfortable situation b/c most people just shove/fold here. If you have KQ/AQ are you really barreling off on a T high board?? You're probably going to check/fold or 1/done a ton b/c 17bb flat looks so trappy and strong.

Additionally, an A will only flop approximately 20% of the time. When this happens we now don't lose to AQ/AK and don't get stacked by KK/QQ. We also have an opportunity to win the hand vs KK/QQ on an Ax board that we would have been stacked on.

All I'm saying is there's a lot more to think about here than the average tourney reg thinks about. And flatting may be the more +EV play vs a standard opponent. Not sure though. I'm not looking at this from a nitty perspective b/c there aren't any payjumps for a while but red flags do go up when an older guy opens just over min from UTG as these guys tend to open KQ/TT type hands a little bigger.

Remember this is not an online MTT where ranges are a lot wider and the field is going to be a lot tougher than the ME.

all your arguments miss a very important point lucas mentioned in his post. if you flat there it´s not sure at all, that you play this hand heads up. it´s very likely other players come along as well and playing a hit or fold strategy against 2 likely strong ranges. and we will have a tough time to get away from our hand often when they do hit. therefore i will also go with the shove

Additionally, an A will only flop approximately 20% of the time. When
this happens we now don't lose to AQ/AK and don't get stacked by
KK/QQ. We also have an opportunity to win the hand vs KK/QQ on an Ax
board that we would have been stacked on.

I believe we have 3 overcards that we don't really want to see on the flop, not just one.

Also, you seem to be overestimating how well you can play postflop this hand. By shoving you either get your money with 45-55% equity (could be even higher), or take down what's in the middle of the pot uncontested. It's gonna be very hard to outperform this by flatting.

Very easy shove it seems.

Playing devils advocate here, is it really the worst thing in the world to let someone else in the hand? You said yourself there's no need to reduce variance so what are we afraid of letting in. Additionally, our hand looks so strong that what would you be calling w/ behind vs a tight utg open and a utg1 17bb flat?

Smaller pairs are crushed. Blinds defending Ax,Kx,Qx have 30% against us. SC's don't really have good implied odds but have 20% against us. Plus we could induce worse to shove behind and get to see what utg does after a squeeze. We also see utg (older guy, stereotypically ABC) play a multi-way pot which leans towards him being more honest.

I think a key point is old guy click opens UTG. Readless older guys are more likely to open vulnerable hands much bigger and have an extremely tight range on the first hand post-bubble w/ 40bb behind.

Just trying to think outside the box here. Thoughts?

I mean with a live read, maybe you could something different, but I also think there's a reasonably good chance our shove gets called by 88-TT, maybe even lower pairs, old guys aren't always super nitty, and I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see a loose call from a lot of old guys.

Again, if we were deeper I could see another option being fine, but we rly don't have very many chips, and our hand is kind of vulnerable so I'd prefer shoving here. As well you haven't given me sufficient information that the middle aged guy is very tight, there's no reason IMO why he can't open 55 KQo 78s etc, so unless you have the read that he'se xtremely nitty I can't imagine anything other than allin.

I think there's a tendency in MTTs, particularly high buyins to pick lines that "reduce variance" but the reality is you have 17bbs, you gotta take the most profitable option available, its not as if you flat and fold an A high flop, your going to be able to play your 15bb stack so well that you can avoid getting allin or flipping. The reality is if you call and don't end up all in, within a few orbits your gonna look down at KQo or A8o or 55 and shove, so particularly after the bubble bursts, its not rly in your interest to avoid getting all in when its the highest ev option.

Also, you probably can't "reduce variance" when you're down to 17 BB post-ante. Not that I think calling here with JJ will necessarily reduce variance.

I like your train of thought at rare times in a shallow stacked online readless mtt where u could be a donk in the view of a 20bb reshover behind...but the problem with this being the ME is that every has heaps/the avg stack is normally 60-80 bbs.

I think you got stuck inside your head on this one, tinyelvis. I can appreciate what you're saying about trying to think of non-standard lines and such but this simply is not one of these spots.

Now, if you had said you have reads that the table is very aggressive and you think there's a strong chance a similar stack will 3b shove lightly if you flat ... but the crux of your thought process seemed to boil down to postflop play and I can't get down with that.

If you flat, there is a very strong chance that you lose 2 bb here by flatting and then have the blinds go through you in a few hands and suddenly your 17 bb stack is like 13.5 and you're a bit screwed.

The added equity we gain by them realizing equity/inducing squeezes/reducing variance(which could debatably increase variance) I doubt is enough to compensate for the equity we allow them to realize/ we give up.

And what would be your action if you face the same spot, same guy, same blinds, but instead of JJ u pick up 66?

TT+ I´d shove

JJ i would shove insta so it looks like AK and we make it easier for villain to look us up with 77-TT. WIth 17bb and no pay jumps soon its an easy shove. But lets say we have 25bb? Then i would flat and hope someone shoves, anyone disagree?