KK vs check/raise on dry flop
Posted by q3timmy
Posted by
q3timmy
posted in
High Stakes
KK vs check/raise on dry flop
CO: 21,011
BN: 14,959
SB: 47,982
BB: 17,893
Villain is a reg, no reads. OTF, I would assume he is only raising sets, small and mid PP for protection, some of his FD and maybe 8x, so we have an easy call. I would also assume he keeps betting all his sets and 87s almost 100% on that turn, so I decided to bet again to get value from his FD, 99, TT and random 8x.
I think I completely butchered the river: against that hands that I am putting him on, I should probably bet more like 1/3 pot. As played, I could not think of a single hand that would shove river after checking turn, so I called.
Exploitatively, can we get away with folding this river? Although the way he played the hand makes no sense, I do think 90% of regs would not shove that river as a bluff with that SPR, plus it is still possible that some % of the time he still has sets in his range.
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interesting line from villian.
flat call pf - c/c flop - c/r turn - c/r river
i feel sick about the river c/r.
the turn c/r reps strength/made hand or possibly a bluff raise (is villian capable of this play). most fd that check raise semi-bluff do so on the flop. so fd seems unlikely. Th9h/combo draw is about it.
he may have a set giving hero a chance to bluff a busted fd on river. other possible holdings incl to Th9h, 77, 87, J8 and AhJh (though I think this last one very unlikely for reasons above), one pair 8x and a bluff. hero doesn't beat much of that.
I think turn c/r slow me down. Partly because I am not sure I am ahead and partly because I really want to know what he c/r turn with. He has put money in on two streets already. Hero has one pair albeit an overpair. I check river. I want to see his hand. I want that info.
hello buddy ,
im confused about villains line here. so when he check raises flop he´s going to have 33 ,22, 88 cause in theory he can set mine you re both so deep. Also if he is doing this with FD plus big Overcards probably he is looking to barrel turn in hight freq. Once he x/c T i guess he can be pot controling mid pairs he raised for protection / value. River i think we should check back tho. Seems nitty but Not seeing what part of is range we can be extracting at this point. hope make sense :)
I guess we can overfold river as I do not see players having a balanced bluffing range with this line. His value range is basically sets (most likelly JJ) and his bluffing range should be in some frequency 99/TT and AQhh but I do not see the average field bluffing it enough.
So what hand had Villain ?
He had JJ, which the way this player and this tournament plays in general, I would not have put in his range, at least the biggest % of the time. So at least one Pedro was right about it.
Is it ok hero shove on turn in spots like this to protect against flush draws and some bluffs in river?
Unlucky bro, It's kind of a weird line from him as with a hand as strong as JJ and him been +150 BB's deep and OOP would think he would 3b this range of hands at a high % pre for value?
After his c/r on flop, the c/c on turn and c/r all in on river i very much doubt he's bluffing but personally if i folded river (Doubtful) I would probably assign him a range of 9Thh, J8ss, J8o, with Jh, sets and other 2p hands like maybe 78s. (Perfect hands to peel SB pre)
Turn is pretty much a blank for his xr range since his value bets are still strong enough to continue and his bluffs pretty much doesn't improve, just the bdsd-fd-bdfd 7x hands.
Those hands are not guaranteed to call the turn always, he needs something to go along with it, if you narrow it to 7x with hearts that xr the flop with some frequency, then you have just a super small subset of combos that are reasonable river xr bluffs (Th7h-9h7h) vs your range that decides to put four bets in.
If you compare that (that are not even 100% of those two combos due to flop xr frequencies and turn xc frequencies) to the amount of value combos is just a large assymmetry that makes KK probably a losing call. Any pair on the board probably performs better than KK due to card removal effects.
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