josh arieh 42bbs deep facing 19 bb squeeze shove 10 left $5k 8 max wsop
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mikehunsucker
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josh arieh 42bbs deep facing 19 bb squeeze shove 10 left $5k 8 max wsop
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Timo Pfutzenreuter raised to 32,000 from the cutoff seat, Josh Arieh called from the small blind, and Justin Kindred reraised all in for about 310,000 from the big blind. After Pfutzenreuter folded, Arieh called with the 
. Kindred had the 
.
The 
board gave Arieh the win and sent Kindred out the door in 10th place.
arieh started the hand with roughly 41 bbs. timo, who has been hyper agg all tourney started the hand with 32 bbs. and the 4 bet shove was for 19.5 bbs
does arieh think he is trapping here? just seems bad to be calling off half your stack here, from a guy shoving into two players.
thoughts?
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Depends how wide he expects BB to shove right? I don't mind his play tbh.
agree. maybe its very good, just seems high variance
He has to consider how best to play against CO/BTN. His strategy might have been to flat a lot from the blinds ; therefore he has to stack off with this hand vs the squeeze, so as to defend his flattting strategy.
He's not trapping. He wants to play a7s vs. the pfr and is priced in once the BB reshoves. I the first decision is close between 3b/call and the second decision is a pretty clear call.
fair enough. trapping was prob a poor choice of words. seems more optimal to be 3betting this hand, or folding pre, imo, with the reshove stack behind, especially OOP
Folding A7s to CO raise is criminal
bri, couldn't agree more, but then calling the reshove, when it's through 2 players, for 1/2 your chips? would obv have to know dynamics and jam frequency, but seems pretty close to a fold imo after the jam. sam disagrees......and he is very good. i don't know. weird spot, especially with ICM considerations, with 10 left in the tournament
I think Arieh just calls to keep Timo's range as wide as possible and because he probably isn't getting it in pre vs. Timo with A7s and doesn't want to get 4 bet and blown off what is likely the better hand in this spot.
The squeezer also must know Timo is very aggro and Josh is going to flat IP with a fairly wide range so I think the squeezer's range is very wide - any ace, tons of Kx, Qx, all pairs, etc. etc.
Josh is definitely priced in for what's pretty likely to be a flip or a spot where he could be decently ahead, and he still has 20 BB if he loses the hand.
Surprised that the subsequent call of the jam is considered not close.
We need 42% to breakeven cEV wise. We're going to have breakevenish price against a lot of reasonable ranges. And hard to find a reasonable range where we're going to have a massive edge. Vs 18% jam range, we're going to have 43%, a 1% edge in a ~40bb pot, or ~0.4 bb.
If bb is type to peel QJo/J9s type hands rather than 3b (flatting is probably best with those hands as BB), then the call is losing.
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IDK what ppl's flatting ranges look like, but if it's like AA/55-77/ATo/A5s-AJs/KJ+/QJ/suited broadway/K9s/Q9s/J9s/98s+, then A7s is roughly 50th percentile within our sb flatting range in terms of equity vs our opponent's jam range. So I would think we shouldn't feel exploited by folding here.
If pfr is calling ~25-30% of his opening range and we're calling half the time pfr folds, bb is going to get called ~60%+ of the time, making shoves with hands as strong as A8o/KJo/KTs unprofitable or breakevenish.
http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#RJEB
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On a tangent, what do ppl think is a reasonable flatting range in the sb?
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