JJ vs 50bb 3bj on a final table
Posted by robullll
Posted by
robullll
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Low Stakes
JJ vs 50bb 3bj on a final table
FT of a 3.30 donkament on stars and I’m 2/6 remaining with 60bbs the guy in 3rd has 53bbs and is playing extremely aggro with decent hands (I’ve noted him to 3bj 50bb w chip lead behind) but at a fair frequency considering ICM, I think we saw AQo at showdown once in a similar scenario.
I open JJ utg and he 3 bet jams. I folded considering ICM and the fact that I am 50-70% favourite vs a range of Ax and I am not sure whether he plays bigger pp like this or not.
Obviously I am not out of the tournament if I lose and I was more comfortable taking the lower variance route, but poker ain’t about what makes you comfortable it’s about what makes you the most money!
I am roughly aware of the disparity between cEV and $EV in these spots, but this situation exposed my lack of knowledge of the extent to this disparity. I basically had to guess at the decision in game and would like to be able to study it more thoroughly.
Important details: At the time there were 3 shorter stacks with 12, 20 & 23 bbs respectively. If I called and won I would be an overwhelming chip leader, c/l had 66bb.
Payouts were as follows:
1st: 252
2nd: 147
3rd: 105
4th: 80
5th: 63
6th: 51
I am still doubting whether it was a correct fold and roughly what is our calling range in this spot? What is the best way to study these spots and what tools can I use?
Loading 3 Comments...
This spot seems super close.
How come you have such a great understanding of it, but do not know which tools to use to analyze it :)?
You can use HRC or ICMizer. The latter used to offer 3 free sims per day on their website where one could alter ranges, do not know if this is still the case, but if you are somewhat serious as an MTT player you should get it anyway.
I would run it with the ranges the program is assigning by itself first and then input ranges that you think are more realistic (like weight KK+ at a very low frequency, QQ+ also pretty low, lower the frequency of the A5s bluff it will probably use at full freq etc).
+1 GeeTeeOh mentioning HRC & ICMIZER, the latter only gives 1 run a day for free atm i think. Either software is handsdown with investing in if your looking at long term development and success in MTT's. I prefer ICMIZER mainly because the UI is a bit cleaner and its generally quicker and crunching the calcs, however thats just one guys opinion so i'd advise you watch some review vids on YT, etc. I know Owen Shiels uses HRC on a fair few of his RIO vids.
I've tried to help out with an example below, albeit I dont have all the info needed, e.g what position was villian in (to build a semi accurate jamming range range), other stack sizes of 4-6th position, etc so I've just made some assumptions on stack sizes below. This should be close enough to give you a better understanding of the situation, however, its super dependant on villains pushing range, with 50BB you can pretty much assume they aren't straight shipping KK/AA. The below images depict the percentages i've used in terms of how often villain jams QQ (30% jam, the other 70% would be a 3bet not allin), and other parts of their range, obviously all guesstimates, but playing around with these fugues is what will enable you to understand when your should call or fold in these or similar scenarios Vs different range types.
Other factors to consider are, your assumed edge on the table, is it a turbo and how soon are your going to run down to 30bb or less if you blind away, etc. However 53bb stack on FT with a general stack distribution will generally lead to a call here being relatively negative $EV
If we start including AA & KK in villains jamming range (which isn't unreasonable at this buy in level) a call here would be pretty cataclysmically -$EV
Post deleted some comments on the images :| - comments in order of image below:
1) CO villain push range at 2.1%, excluding KK/AA]
2) Hero ICM $EV calling range Vs 2.1% push range
3) If we up villain to a 2.6% push range, with a dash of AJ at 5-10%, add in 88 10%, KK and AA at approx 5-10% and AQ is jamming about 15% more than the previous run - We are still negative ICM $EV, with QQ just about being borderline
4)Villain needs to be shoving approx 12% in order to make JJ a bordeline profitable call
5) Hero call range ICM$EV+ Vs 12% villain push range]
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