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Is this ICM suicide here

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Is this ICM suicide here

bovada $75 knock out
1st $2296
2.$1586
3.$1226
4.$913
5.$615
6.$511
7.$396

Blind 8000/16000 1600 ante
UTG 130k
UTG+1 320k
Me 90k
UTG+3 578k
Dealer 330k
SB 163k
BB 127k

UTG fold, UTG+1 open 34k, I have 77 here. Do I have to go with my hand here given that I know I have no fold equity and I’m flipping at best? Can I fold in this spot ?

Thank you for you input

15 Comments

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navstar 8 years, 11 months ago

Sucks because you are always getting called, but you have to go for it. If the other players are paying attention at all (they are) they will not want to go broke before you. This is also ICM. With 6 BB and the blinds approaching you, nobody will want to play a big pot at all. However, like I said the opener will never be folding.

shakesbear 8 years, 11 months ago

Thanks for the input guys.
I put it into the icmizer. it turns out this spot is closer than we think. There are 4 other stacks under 10bb. I dont think he is opening too wide here given there are 2 big stacks behind him and 2 short stack in blinds. I just did a sim had him opening 14% of hands ( all Broadways and All pairs over 55s). It shows 77s is slightly -ev shove. On average we lose $20. 88s is slight break even. But it also shows how tight we have to shove here. AQ+ and 88+.

timetopop87 8 years, 11 months ago

Hey guys. By my calculations it's an easy fold (although I would have shoved in game). Shakesbear, on your icmizer calcs in the hero push column you have all players set to 8% to overcall. After a raise and 3bai these players calling ranges should be very tight. 3% or possibly less. You also have the mp opener only calling 8% of his original 14% opening range. Given the pot odds he will be calling the complete 14% giving us no fold equity. Also it looks like you might have the stats for when hero folds set to 8% on all other villains which drastically changes matters. I could have done this wrong but assuming he's opening the 14% as shakesbear has assumed I think its more like a -$58 dollar shove!!!!!

piterlanguila 8 years, 11 months ago

Yep I'd be happily mucking here too, especially when UTG1 is opening this spot he should be pretty tight given stack sizes. Also bb and sb are going to bust somewhat often here too, so I think that would be my std gii there too (AQ 88 ) . If you want to fuck icm take close spots with fold equity at least, but no real reasons for shoving here :)

shakesbear 8 years, 11 months ago

Okay I did a new sim with adjusted range of people behind me. I gave them a ready tight calling range QQ+ for smaller stack and a slightly bigger range for those 2 big stacks. But the result turns out 77 becomes a +ev shove here. And without FGS its even more plus ev.

Here is a link of this problem http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#mHYFUD Can you guys see if my set up is wrong or something ? I have input the payout already.

Thank you very much guys

timetopop87 8 years, 11 months ago

I tried but that link doesn't work on my pc. Can you make the screen shot bigger like the first one but with out the calling and folding range so I can see what you've entered in the hero call and hero fold bit clearer? I've tried your pay outs plus some standard mtt structures, fiddled with ranges a bit but generally it's 10s+ ak. It only changes substantially when you change the original raisers call off range.

timetopop87 8 years, 11 months ago

yeah that's the one. mine is very similar to yours. The big difference is at the bottom of the hero push column you don't have mp calling off 14% but as you stated in your first post we have no fold equity so it should be 14% (his whole opening range). Try changing that and see what you come up with. Have a look at your overcall ranges too.

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