Is this an ICM fold ?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Is this an ICM fold ?

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/11922155_60141786DF

Hey guys i was third in the chips at the time 1k up top , we had been opening and 3b each other fairly often. Final table get paid only 11 left. Ive been told by my mates that they're never folding . I would really appreciate your insight :)

10 Comments

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khrndz1737 10 years, 3 months ago

I would be interested in what the pro's say, but my advice is to run the situation in an ICM calculator like ICMIZER with your best available stats/reads. Your actual decision is going to depend pretty heavily on opening ranges and 4bet calling ranges - when I just ran this situation, CO and BTN need to be uber-nits (like < 10% opening range) for TT to be questionable. Assuming something like a 25% CO opening range and a 10% BTN 3bet range (and 13%/6% 4bet calling range), TT should be a profitable call. But it's a garbage-in, garbage-out proposition - I would play around with this or another calculator based on your real-life data to get a better approximation.

FlySooHigh 10 years, 3 months ago

That is a very awkward spot indeed.
I believe that is marginal +EV shove, considering our relative deep stack for the turbo and the bubble situation.
In the best case scenario, when everybody folds, we add 8 bbs to our 26.5 bb stack, but in the worst case we risk to get it in with 20% equity and bubble the tournament.
So if we are willing to gamble and take all the marginal +EV spots, than it is a shove, otherwise folding is a safer route.
4B/folding seems to be a bad idea, because we really have no good blockers and 4betting with TT will be like 4betting with any2. Also there is a sizing problem, as our 4bet should be at least 8bb and that is 30% of our stack, which seems to be beyond 4b/fold threshold. The point could be made that such cold 4b looks awfully strong, but would you really play like that with AA and KK? At the end everything can go down the usual reg levelling war :)

pman1990 10 years, 3 months ago

Yeah but 4b and folding to a 5b gives a good indication on narrowing their range. JJ AQ AJ are all folding. I am still left with a maneuverable stack aswell.

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 3 months ago

Shoving can't be bad and also flatting is an option. My intuition says that both strategies have an EV that is similar (probably shoving has more EV) but the variance discrepancy is absurd. My standard was to shove this spots deliberately with TT but I am guessing it isn't the best risk-reward scenario with these stacks.

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