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Is this a value bet on the river?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Is this a value bet on the river?

CO: dunc13: 3576
BN: G.I. Silla: 3871
SB: misbilie: 3328
BB: whyme270483: 19591
UTG: RafaCorreaBR: 2699
UTG1: ruscittobr: 5665
LJ: dawhiteninja: 8028
HJ: MEAMAX1: 1398
Preflop (300) (8 Players)
dawhiteninja was dealt K A
RafaCorreaBR folds, ruscittobr folds, dawhiteninja raises to 500, MEAMAX1 folds, dunc13 folds, G.I. Silla folds, misbilie folds, whyme270483 calls 300
Flop (1100) 4 K 4 (2 Players)
whyme270483 checks, dawhiteninja checks
Turn (1100) 4 K 4 3 (2 Players)
whyme270483 checks, dawhiteninja bets 497, whyme270483 calls 497
River (2094) 4 K 4 3 A (2 Players)
whyme270483 checks, dawhiteninja checks
Final Pot
whyme270483 has Q K dawhiteninja has K A dawhiteninja wins 2414

Villian is reg, I ask if he calls a river value bet he says no. If we assume he's telling the truth is this a correct check back? The only hand I can think that calls turn and calls river (if he's folding KQ) is Ax. But when Ah comes I can't really think of many Ax hand he should be floating with.

Seems like an easy value bet on the face of it, but I'm not so sure it is.


13 Comments

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Andre Bilenky 10 years, 11 months ago

this is for sure a vbet. u can pretty safely bet/fold river ( assuming v is not a spazz) , or if u wanna go crazy , this is a great spot to bet/3bet shove allin .  and btw, why did u check back flop and bet so small ott?

dablancninja 10 years, 11 months ago

I agree with b/f river. But why is this a sure vbet if he's not calling with Kx? I can't see many hands that call worse than us if he's folding KQ like he said? Please name the hands he calls our value bet on river.

I check back flop because I basically have the hand locked up and I only think I'm getting two streets of value at best on that board and it induces bluff/protection bets from villain.

Regarding turn sizing, I think his calling range is pretty elastic. Easy to say bet bigger when you can see he'd call any size basically but if he had 55 here he might not call 75% pot bet, but he's calling 40%. But I had planned to go for two streets of smallish value to keep those types hands and A high in but changed my mind on river when flush came and couldn't think what hands call with worse as he's a reg.


I do think it's a value bet but like I said I need the logic of why it is. I'm struggling to justify when I can't think of any worse hands that call if he's folding KQ.


no1hf 10 years, 11 months ago

but the question is why you don't cbet flop? you miss value from all pocket pairs (from 55 to JJ assuming that he 3bet QQ - AA), weaker K and maybe A high. As played: to my mind you should bet/fold river. I bet something around  750 - 850.

dablancninja 10 years, 11 months ago

I just thought I was only getting two streets of value at best on that board (which I was right about) and it induces bluff/protection bets from villain.

But I am starting to come round to bet,bet,bet now I have more time to think about it.

Andre Bilenky 10 years, 11 months ago

he told you that he would have folded river after he saw your hand, theres a good chance he might call u there. 

i think he could have lots of ax hands that would pay off thinking they are chopping, there are some kx like the one he has and most importantly imo, when u check back just makes u easy to play against and not allowing u to bluff as much cause u don't have thin value bets.

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 11 months ago

bet bigger on the flop and go for the smaller size on turn and river... he would call 55-JJ on this flop/turn, KT-KQ... and may fold some of them OTR. this way you would extract more chips and give less information showing your hand. 40bb effective you can triple barrel this board a good portion of the time or pot control on OTT sometimes.

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