Is this a good turning-your-pair-into-a-bluff-spot?
Posted by Henritank
Posted by Henritank posted in High Stakes
Is this a good turning-your-pair-into-a-bluff-spot?
100$ rebuy satellite for BSOP.
I have around 32K, Blinds 500/1000/100
Relatively solid, thinking player(Stack 38K) with bluffs in arsenal raises from the HJ for 2500
Button calls. I have A2hh and flat.
Flop comes K72r. Villain makes it 3,2K and I call with BDFD as well.
I think this is just the perfect spot for her to continue betting her air for
few chips since board is so dry and miss us so often and K hits her range well.
I call thinking I am ahead a good amount of the time.
Pot is about 15,4K now. Turn comes Qs. Goes check/check.
River is a 4.
Is this a good bluffing opportunity?
I know she was a thinking player. I was thinking I could rep quite a bit of Hands
such as 3 combos of 77 3 combos of 22 and a lot of Kx value betting here as well
as two pair combos(K7,K2) And I think here checking the turn caps her range.
I was thinking with what she checked back the turn and I thought there was a lot of Q
type of hands in her range such as QT,QJ,QA,Q9s,Q8s which she cbt and pot controlled now.
I think the top of her check back range on turn is Kx, where she thinks she doesn't need to
protect her hand too much and thinks she won't get 3 streets of value against me anyways.
Her range also includes a lot broadways which now have a gutshot, although i could see her
double barreling these quite some time. I also thought she had a lot of middle PPs.
So I knew her range is most likely ahead of me and if I check I lose.
What sizing is best for a bluff here? I made 8,5K but thinking now I think
its too small since she is getting 3:1. But I thought the flop is so dry
that I have to have something here on the river, unless she thought at
that point I am capable of floating OOP with air(which I am).
So now thinking that maybe a shove is the best option here?
It puts a lot of pressure on her and I think her range is relatively capped.
I think she checks back sets a lot of the time on the flop and not on the turn,
but might have one pair Kings that check back turn to get value on last street.
But I was thinking here range is more in the mid PPs and Qx type of hands,
which I definitely can fold out with a shove. It is really polarized, but I
don't think she would except me to overshove bluff too often here giving
that the hands that I can have that are bluffs after calling flops are almost always
only floats, which is not that likely for me to do anyway(out of her perspective).
Happy on ur thoughts
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