Is this a good 3bet jam against an aggressive opponent with 48 players left?
Posted by Smalltimeplayer
Posted by
Smalltimeplayer
posted in
Low Stakes
Is this a good 3bet jam against an aggressive opponent with 48 players left?
Blinds: t2,400/t4,800 (8 Players)
SB: guilleoliver: 298,144
BB: sukhjit33: 87,230
UTG: beckss88: 377,144
UTG+1: soufb7: 254,691
MP: leafsmets: 434,404
MP+1: djole43: 125,116
CO: icarus462: 102,134 (Hero)
BN: carlosxaula: 164,330
BB: sukhjit33: 87,230
UTG: beckss88: 377,144
UTG+1: soufb7: 254,691
MP: leafsmets: 434,404
MP+1: djole43: 125,116
CO: icarus462: 102,134 (Hero)
BN: carlosxaula: 164,330
Preflop
(7,200)
icarus462 is CO with
6
6
, , , ,
Blinds 2400/4800
Villain is 54/40 over 66 hands and has been very aggressive pre with his sizing when he opens. Also note that Villain is a station calling down super light in spots where he has little equity.
There are 48 players left and I think I could of passed up this spot if it was another person but Villain has shown to open 3x and fold to a lot of my 3bet jams. I was contemplating to 3bet and fold to a 4bet but villain has shown not to fold to any standard 3bet against other opponents.
I have 40.04% equity against 9.8% (66+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo) of hands that he can call me with. I did some calculations and it says it's a +EV spot for me to shove but I'm not quite sure that's correct.
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tough one is that mate, I think I'd prob fold here because 1, we don't have much fold equity against this guy and 2, we still have 21 big blinds which is a decent stack still so late on in a tourney, I still think its close though! Im sure theres a lot on here that would defo say shove.
Definitely a close spot so i was indifferent to jam/folding except i think i am ahead of his openong range so much of the time (assuming he opens 40% and only calling at the top of his range) so i decided to go with my read. I do not like calling and 3betting would make us commited if we realise good equity on the flop. Please correct me if i am wrong.
Maybe this is a mental leak in my game where i try to outplay my opponent.
I think if I had something like 12-15 bigs I'd defo jam!
i think i agree with ra on this one but i understand why you jammed. I think with 21 bb you are still in a nice spot and 66 might just be slightly too weak but that's just my opinion. Has he been shown to call light as well or just fold a lot to 3 bets ?
He is definitely not folding to 3bet (25% fold to 3bet). He folded to twice to my 3bet jams previously.
I still think mathically i made the right play except i agree that 66 is weak when he shows up with the top5%.
fold. when you say he's not folding to your 3 bet ever, then you can't have any doubt that it is not +EV. 3bet jamming small PPs is often the right play when you combine Fold equity+Hand equity, cause in the event of call, you still are flipping a lot. When you eliminate your fold equity, you're flipping everytime at best, when at worst you are well beaten. So it's a fold. And i dont even have to consider that he's raising UTG and should be stronger than anywhere else. and that u still have 20bbs and it's not an urgent spot :)
Against that range definitely shoving, not even close
Your read makes this a tough decision. There are so many reshoving stacks behind this guy that him opening with a range that doesn't have 66 in bad shape seems bad. Since he calls light, you're very likely going to end up in a flip situation, but thats about as good as you're going to be unless you think he might be opening 33 or K2 from UTG. At this stack depth I definitely don't love folding pairs but I don't think it's a huge mistake either way we go.
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