ICM OR NOT: Storm 10+R
Posted by Arnaud Lafaurie
Posted by
Arnaud Lafaurie
posted in
Mid Stakes
ICM OR NOT: Storm 10+R
Blinds: t25,000/t50,000 (6 Players)
BN: 1,635,285
SB: 1,157,324
BB: 718,387 (Hero)
UTG: 1,015,753
MP: 4,217,331
CO: 1,577,182
SB: 1,157,324
BB: 718,387 (Hero)
UTG: 1,015,753
MP: 4,217,331
CO: 1,577,182
not much to say about vilain, 120 hands 15/13, seen him raise/call a shove+overshove with AKs
Preflop
(75,000)
Hero is BB with
7
7
, , , ,
Flop
(1,481,774)
9
5
J
Turn
(1,481,774)
9
5
J
3
River
(1,481,774)
9
5
J
3
Q
Final Pot
BN
wins and shows a pair of Queens.
BB lost and shows a pair of Sevens.
BN wins 1,481,774
BB lost and shows a pair of Sevens.
BN wins 1,481,774
so is this a standard reshove at 12 left. I put everything in ICMIZER and it gives a TT+, AK range for reshoving vs a 8% open, if I increase the range at 14% 77 is 0$ev
what's your thought?
thanks
Prize pool
1 2907EUROS
2 2118
3 1561
4 1175
5 825
6 657
7 502
8 347
9 231
10-12 177
13-15 146
Loading 15 Comments...
My second comment is as I play not on a regular basis mean let's say 1000 tournament year to date, do I have to take all the spot that are slightly ev+?
The button should be opening way wider than the 8 and 14% you used as his range. Given how wide he should be 77 is an easy shove with your stack size.
All in. You don't have any ICM pressure being the shortest stack and bn would raise/fold a lot on this spot.
Id go with TT +, and sevens id call and fold flop :-) I'm nitty tho
that made no sense
Was he opening only 8% on the button?
I dunno, with these stack sizes i think he should be opening close to 40% (someone correct me if im wrong), so seems like an easy shove. But if hes opening 8%, he might just be ubbernitty and raise-call with 100% of his opening range, so flatting or stop n go could be better.
not too much history with this guy, he only open a couple of times and seems not open at optimum frequency in late position. I think earlier I made a big mistake against this guy as well, but over the samples of hand I have he only show up 2 times QQ, 1 time KK, 1 55, and 1 AKs
77s pretty standard shove with 14bbs. I think flatting is out of the question here. The btn will most likely be raising 30-35% of hands here. Even at 15/13 I'm sure he is opening wide here. I'd only fold here if the next payout is a huge difference, or there are many other 7-10bb stacks.
Noteworthy point:
We are not comparing shoving to folding, we are comparing shoving to flatting 1 bb to win ~4.5 bb + implied odds + (some) possibility of winning showdowns unimproved, while having the option to get away from bad flops and play future hands with 12bb.
It's not enough that a shove is profitable (i.e. better than folding). It has to outperform all other options, both calling and folding. Calling 1bb in 4.5 bb with implied odds and the possibility of winning some showdowns unimproved seems like a legitimate and profitable option to me (even if we can not calculate the EV exactly).
If calling is profitable, we need to do better than EV > 0 to make a shove. We have to do EV (shove) > EV (call), and also taking the value of playing future hands with 13bb into account.
Right?
good point Zen
I never ever think about the option of flatting here and I should
Yes, Solskjær you are right. The solution of flatting is reasonably assumption heavy so constructing a range that allows you to x/s with determined frequency with good equity would make the option of flatting 77 easier. People tend to shove 77 with 100% frequency HU. If SB comes along I'd be more inclined to flat.
@ZenFish interesting point. All the calculations I do with under 15bbs is shoving vs. folding. I should also consider flatting like you said and not be so stubborn to think under 15bbs is ALWAYS a shove. In certain situations like you mentioned flatting might be the best option. Never really thought of calculating if flatting with 13bbs is more profitable than shoving.
I understand the point you are making, just not sure how to do the right calculations. Basically the hypothesis is that calling a raise with 77 and 13bb is more profitable than shoving, and it is more EV+ in the long run to flat?
thanks guys.
as I played not a huge volume and bust so many times after 5, 6 hours of play at around final 2 to 3 tables this year that, I think I'm too result oriented/risk averse.
JerseyGrinder23:
Basically the hypothesis is that calling a raise with 77 and 13bb is more profitable than shoving, and it is more EV+ in the long run to flat?
Not necessarily, but if flatting is profitable (and it certainly appears to be, paying only 1bb), we need to compare the EV of shoving vs the EV of flatting and choose the best of the two. Estimating EV (flat) is of course the tricky part, but the principle remains. We need to compare our profitable options, not only looking at EV (shove) in a vacuum.
We can also think about variance. If we have a profitable set mining spot (plus some EV from getting to a free or cheap showdown unimproved, plus some bluff EV that we might find, but let's ignore those things), then almost always we either play on with 12bb or with a significantly bigger stack. If we shove, we often double or bust, since we expect limited fold equity versus a big stack (when he has a 2x/fold range the presence of shorter stacks behind him means he should 2x tighter, since he will get jammed on more often).
These future prospects might sway is in one direction or the other, depending on our goals for the tournament and our risk tolerance.Shove could be best, but flatting has a lot of upside and minimal downside for us, and could also be the max +EV option.
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