How to calculate bubble spots
Posted by zerodeda
Posted by
zerodeda
posted in
Mid Stakes
How to calculate bubble spots
I'm using ICMIZER but for large mtts it seems like you cant calculate bubble spots(?)
So how can i study push/fold ranges on bubble?
Also, If the buy in is 80$ and starting stack 3000 and mincash 160$ is the mincash worth 6000 chips?
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Although you can't plug in bubble spots (I think) for large tournaments in ICMizer, ICM still applies to bubble spots and it's difficult to assign a chip value to min cashes. ICM is used to relate chipEV decisions to expected monetary gains/losses. For that reason, bubble spots also need to consider that. If you were to assign the mincash in your example a value of 6,000 chips, we would find it easy to make +chipEV decisions in bubble spots, but we might easily make poor ICM ($) decisions as a result of that.
Therefore, you should treat the mincash of $160 as $160 (rather than 6,000 chips). Based purely on chipEV, we should always take a 51/49 spot for our stack at any point in the tournament as we will gain chips on average. But, as this spot constitutes a very small expected change in our stack, we would risk not cashing for a negligible increase in our stack. As with ICM calculations at final tables, we will likely have to pass up +chipEV spots near the bubble to ensure we get the mincash. Conversely, we might be able to take -chipEV spots that have a positive $ expectation, such as pressuring opponents in BvB spots.
ICM increases in importance as we near the bubble, becomes less important once ITM, and then increases in importance again all the way until just two players remain.
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