Hot $5.50 - KJ off shove BN?
Posted by So_Nitty
Posted by
So_Nitty
posted in
Low Stakes
Hot $5.50 - KJ off shove BN?
Blinds: t6,000/t12,000 (8 Players)
MP: 237,804
UTG+1: 111,255
MP+1: 131,104
CO: 135,570
BN: 181,908 (Hero)
SB: 581,752
BB: 172,322
UTG: 34,561
UTG+1: 111,255
MP+1: 131,104
CO: 135,570
BN: 181,908 (Hero)
SB: 581,752
BB: 172,322
UTG: 34,561
There are about 70 players left and I'm in about 25th spot. Blinds are 6000 & 12000 with antes so about 10 effective BB left. I just got moved to this table and the big stack is right on my left
Preflop
(18,000)
Hero is BN with
J
K
, , ,
HM Resources says this is a about a +1 bb shove. Should I be more patient and let some more players bust?
Flop
(384,816)
T
3
J
Turn
(384,816)
T
3
J
9
River
(384,816)
T
3
J
9
2
Loading 11 Comments...
Standard.
I'd say it depends somewhat on the players after you. If you think anyone is calling with top 20% of hands or more it's a fold, but if it's about 15% or less I'd say it's a pretty good shove. I might be completely wrong on this, but unless they have stats on you being aggro they're not calling your shove often with hands like Q9s, J9s or T9s (I'd think), so they're not often calling with top 20% of hands.
I mean, you could raise fold if they're nitty but I don't know if I like it.
Fifteen blinds worth a lot on a turbo tournament. Without reads it is standard to make your life easy and shove but there aren't many good scenarios. If it gets through, you win two blinds when they obviously folded worse hands. When you are called for that amount of chips you are usually ver far behind. I like limping and maybe calling BB if he shoves with a hand that have very decent board coverage but I don't do it very often for practicality.
You're right....he had AA and I should definitely waited for a better spot as there were so many shorter stacks about to bust. Also I didn't really know how the table was playing so I could have waited an orbit or two to get a better idea
I think you may be result oriented because you found AA on the SB with a big stack. If the SB is capable of calling light, you could fold and move on but against two ordinary players it's a standard shove, imo.
Just because he showed up with aces doesnt mean shoving is bad. Youre not only folding out worse when shoving, youll fold out small pps, some Ax, that are beating you and suited broadways that SB is reshoving with + you deny equity to BB, who`s gonna realize 100% of it for free if you limp.
BB won't realise 100% of equity since the SPR won't be low enough to let him shove if he hits. The limping strategy includes premiums that are unlikely to be outdrawn and hands that are disgusting raise/folds as broadways that make 1/15 of your stack in average when shoving.
So, if you run 300k times the spot you will get one blind. If you run it once (as the site suggest) you get a fold around 80% (I guess, have no HRC here) that nets you 2bb. A call that probably nets you a double up or a bust. Against 99+, ATs+, AJo+ you have 30% equity when called and it will happen with around 20% of the time. It is easy to calculate the EV of the spot and from it you get the variance. Using the variance to analyse how much money you are making on shoving 15bb on a soft turbo tournament you will notice how much money you leave on the table by shoving KJ there.
I know odds of him having AA are really low.....I did think that having a comfortably large stack he would hesitate to call off without a top 10% hand - why take on unnecessary variance when someone is shoving a 15 BB stack even from the BN? If I min raised I can def see him 3 betting light though and folding KJ seemed like a waste. I wanted to use my fold equity and try to chip up a little.
If it had gotten through I would have patted myself on the back.....but as I did run into a big hand it made me rethink the decision. I think it would have been correct with 10BB but I had a little too much and there were so many players left behind me.....I think I agree with Raphael now. I definitely had time to wait for better spots
@Rapha,
Typo, i meant he`ll realize his equity 100% of the time, as in every time he has an option to see the flop for free, not 100% of it.
I dunno, its a tough spot.Im not a fan of shoving myself, but also not a fan of limp folding.Imo its more effective vs known regs who know well have a balanced limping strategy and cant just rip it in ad hoc, or weak tight regs/fish who wont stab a ton postflop.
What you think about raise/folding vs unknowns ?
Raise/fold is certainly the standard for me with KJo (even tough I know I win more chipsshoving) and I doubt people are going nuts enough with KTo-K8o to make a profitable call when they shove. But, really sucks to raise/fold this type of hand that have so much board coverage against any range that they decided to play as a complete from the small blind or even a 3x raise from SB.
(This is a very rough approximation) Limp/folding KJ nets you -1bb and raise/folding KJ nets you -2bb. The question is how much the blinds shoving range differ from each situation. If you expect the blinds to shove on you twice as much when you limp as they would when you raise, the spot would have roughly the same ev.
Each person would have their best response to my strategy and a weaker player may see this as a weak hand and shove very wide as 30%-40% hands non linear which would decrease a lot the expected value of my strategy.
From experience some people do that, others just want to join the party cheaply. Choosing the right opponents to limp rockets and the right opponents to limp broadways is what really nets the ev of the strategy.
As a more general approach, shoving is fine, raise/folding is fine and limping is fine. Each one may be the best against determined stack sizes distribution and gameflow.
Standard Shove with less then 15bbs on btn.
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