You kinda need a 3b/f range and since how he is peeling when we can't make it very large I rather have a range that can play well on 3bet pots. I rather play small pots with Q5s-Q4s/K5s-K2s.

raphael, interesting logic. its just odd like u have to 3b/fold these when they are nice hands to defend. if he really peels that much, it makes for interesting problem as we wud want to be linear, but icm-wide we want to keep pot small. i guess it comes down to how much he shoves and how much he peels, but i think generally we want to be polar with Axo and kxo and make it like 210k to cause him to sort of jam/fold escpecially because now you put the icm pressure on him and u dont have to play oop and potentially waste playable hands like kjs when he jams

I am not completely sure about it since I don't have a large practical sample on it. My assumption is that since he has less chips than us his 4betting range would be somewhat narrowed and if we don't balance properly our 3bet frequency he has no incentive to jam this spot. My other assumption is that he never shoves worse than KJs and A5s so I am not being exploited on the spot.

I am defending probably top 75% on this spot so I don't mind having hands that can defend on my 3bet range as well.

Fivebet, it is pretty close. From opening range, that I suppose is around 45%-50% his peeling frequency is probably around two to three times his shoving frequency (if he doesn't bluff).

i agree that he is peeling way more often then he jams, escp. if u make it like 145-175k or something. but i do think he outright folds a relatively high percent of the time given he doesn't want to peel K7s or K9o probably in a big pot at this point in tournament. His fold percentage will make 3bets profitable, escp if he opening 45-50% as you suggest (which i think is reasonable). given this, his flatting range is actually sort of tight (id expect KTo+, QTo+, K9s+, Q9s+ J9s+ AT-AQ, most suited Aces, some pocket pairs that dont jam, and then like 98s 97s T9s 87s..... he probably jams AQs+ AK 99+ with maybe some 22-55 or A5s/a4s as bluffs). against this range, he folds like 60%, flats 28% and jams 12%. if this is the case, the range we get up against with KJs, we are about 50-50. with the fold equity, the play is +EV no doubt but is it that best way to use this hand? We could start 3betting linearly a lot, but i think this gives him plenty of incentive to start shoving, which makes our play worse. I like flatting this hand and keeping in his weaker kx and jx.
also when u say he only shoves better, thats fine i guess, but we can just flat and have a chance to beat those hands with our great pot odds pre.
i sort of like making it larger and more polar and put icm pressure on him. think of how much he has to fold if we make it 210-230k. he can't flat and jamming is just disgusting. and he has a wide range. we can easily use polar range and i think get a ton of folds. and this also takes away his positional advantage as he has to jam/fold.
Disclaimer: i struggle with these spots. i do like the idea that when we 3b and get flatted, we can take AK and TT+ out of his range so we are up against a strong but not nutted range. i just think given the amt he will fold, and if he in fact does fold as much as i expect, that using a polar range works better. i dont want to be bloating pots OOP at this point in tourney with thin value raises like KJs or A5s. A5s is pretttttty thin

Certainly making 200k-210k using only one sizing for the 3bet range is the more standard, safer and easier way to play this hand. I am not really concerned about play post flop shallow stacked so I might try different lines as pfr to exploit some textures that we are "buying" range advantage cheaply on this spot when he has fewer chips than us.

I am probably taking a day off on friday and I run some simulations on this spot to clarify what I am thinking, what are the downsides and upsides of the strategy. Maybe try to find on my DB similar spots.

yea thats what i think. its all about his flatting frequencies, as 3betting linear v polarized often is

well, I don't expect many tournament regulars to fold to a 175k 3bet more than what they should defend, since all of them are pretty used to play low SPR pots. getting almost 3-1 I wouldn't be that happy folding a good portion of my range in position in a spot that stacks are even.

if he has the 45-55% range (i will assume he opens top 50% hands), hands that id expect to fold to a 3b that he raised are these: K5s-K2s, Q7s-Q2s, J6s-j4s, T6s-T5s, K8o-K4o, A7o-A2o, Q8o-Q7o, J7o-J8o, T7o, 98o (thats 19% of the 50%..... its like do we expect him to be peeling 65s 96s J8o T8o Q9o like there are lot of those two largish card hands that if he peels those changes it a lot. like i think he shud fold j8o j9o t8o t9o q9o and 75s 96s but some players dont.
i just dont know how often he will peel even with like JTo its like he will flop marginal a ton and will have to bluff catch with big icm pressure being put on him by a stronger range.

To say that shoving AT is a waste you gotta show the EV of playing AT post flop as a defense with the stack setup. Or prove that A2s is a better shove than AT.

Well, I don't expect people to 4bet light this spot very often when my inducing range is well balanced. He is spending 330k which is the short stack amount of chips to win 200k that won't change the stack setup or ranges enough risking 40% of his stack.

Against the shoving range I cited he is calling TT+, doesn't really matter what range he is opening. This range is fitted for preflop pushing equity situations. Letting him realise equity with J9s/87s is letting free money on the table when he has position and he won't blast enough frequent enough on A high boards to make AT a well better call than shove.

AK is probably strong enough to 3bet as induce, which doesn't make it a hand that shouldn't be on our 3bet shoving range if you don't want to be exploit by not having high equity hands on both of your range.

I don't get much of the explanation, well I can defend KJs profitably so I will defend. Ranges should be designed to exploit maximum the opponent strategy and a hand that can be a profitable defend can also be a profitable 3bet if you have a well set up plan. It increases variance ? For sure. In this case, increasing variance is way worse for the one who has fewer chips.

"To say that shoving AT is a waste you gotta show the EV of playing AT post flop as a defense with the stack setup. Or prove that A2s is a better shove than AT."

Demonstrating conclusively that it is better to put ATo in a different range is not an easy task I'd think since there are a number of variables, opening range, call jam range, R when flat. Not claiming my word is definitive. Nor have you shown the opposite is true.

Qualitatively the argument is that if you're going to build your ranges, and you can only shove either A2s-A4s or ATo, and If swapping A2s-A4s in for ATo doesn't change your opponent's response, then I'd rather flat with ATo than with A2s-A4s because I think its flatting EV is higher with ATo than for the group of A2s-A4s. It's possible that all those hands are shoves. But I wonder if we should have a 30 bb cramming range at all. Or if maybe we should be shoving all of those hands.

As far whether A2s is a better shove than ATo, you can just stove the two vs different tight ranges, and usually A2s is going to perform better. But there are complications, right? Blockers change how often you get called. And shoving one over the other could cause your opponent to shift his strategy. Those effects could negate the equity boost.

Examples:

Assume open 61%, called by TT+, how often called, equity vs calling range
called 27 of 755 combos vs A2s, 3.58%, 30.0%
called 24 of 733 combos vs ATo, 3.27%, 26.5%

Assume open 61%, called by TT+/AK, how often called, equity vs calling range
called 39 of 755 combos vs A2s, 5.17%, 29.9%
called 36 of 733 combos vs ATo, 4.91%, 26.3%

"I don't get much of the explanation, well I can defend KJs profitably so I will defend. Ranges should be designed to exploit maximum the opponent strategy and a hand that can be a profitable defend can also be a profitable 3bet if you have a well set up plan."

Usually, there are a limited number of hands you can put in a range, in which case you should choose the best ones.

I've compared A2s to ATo. You're comparing A2s to a range of ATs/ATo. And your stoves aren't accurate. In your screenshots there's a note about the syntax. "'s' does not mean 'suited' in generic syntax."

Oops, my mistake forgot $. Your calcs are right.

Even tough, there is a huge difference between 10% less often being called and a 3.5%+ equity when called. Since there isn't a huge EV difference between the two hands when you decrease variance by making the spot happen 10% less often AT > A2s.

The bb's we gain are irrelevant in this scenario, since we're having two 10bb stacks remaining, the value in shoving here is close to zero, thus defending our entire range is the way to go. We do not increase our $EV by shipping any hand here pre, but we lose a large amount in $EV when called and lose.