Hot 33 last 100 players spot
Posted by ThaG12
Posted by
ThaG12
posted in
Mid Stakes
Hot 33 last 100 players spot
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why are you running your sims in chip EV mode? are u ITM or close?
I think you need to select MTT there, considering that it isn't a FT. And also, in a turbo structure I rather relativize some of the slightly -ev hands
we are ITM but payjumps are insignificant so i guess ICM doesn't come into play.
if i click MTT, i have to enter prizepool avg stacksize, remaining players etc, it's like ICM ev calculation and i thought it's not the case since it's not last 18 players, FT bubble or FT.
yeah, it would give you $EV and not cEV. it is ok to do it but if you don't put into, it would consider that it is a final table. Can you put the hh here ? I think would be better to comment after taking a closer look.
On the spot, I don't think you are short enough to call and the next 3 hands you will probably have a gap open shove that is way more profitable than calling against a guy who knows what he is doing here. In this specific spot, I would call A8o with 6bbs or less against CO. If it was from the BTN I think A8 is closer and I may call, but from the CO, even being 10bb effective (you cover both others) I think that is a close fold and you may find it more clearly using the future game simulation tool (I think holdemresources is kinda better for this spot to analyse).
Assuming villain is a competent regular, there are several fundamental errors in your assessment.
1) Baseline range.
Lets look at the 20% range you assigned. I think a more accurate 20% is 22+, A9o+,A5s+,KJo+,K8s+,QJo+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s. This isn't to say he doesn't shove KTo/QTo etc. But rather if you theoretically could only choose 20% to shove then this is the more optimal 20%.
2) Baseline range, adjusted.
Like you mentioned, most players would induce with the top their range here, especially if villain doesn't recognize any of the players behind him as regs.
A reasonable assumption would be TT+,AK taken off the 20% for starters.
But his induce range could be high as 77+,AT+ depending on how villain perceives players behind. The weaker he thinks the players are behind him, the more he induces. The stronger he thinks the players are behind him, the more he shoves the top of his range to balance (since opening into those stacks is rather obvious and begins to risk losing value).
3) Actual range.
So now we have established the baseline 20%, minus the top 3.5% (TT+,AK).
However, assuming player is a competent regular, his range is very reasonably much wider.
A very standard range here would be:
22+,A2+,K7s+,KTo+,Q7s+,QTo+,J7s+,JTo,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s
*without top 3.5% ofc
But a stronger shover would be closer to this:
22+,A2+,K4s+,K9o+,Q7s+,Q9o+,J7s+,J9o+,T7s+,T9o,96s+,85s+,75s+,65s
Add an extra 5-10% if villain is a laggy/high PFR reg.
4) BB overcall range
You have BB overcalling 31%. BB is never overcalling 31%. This should skew the result quite a bit.
A better overcalling range would be 77+,AJo+,ATs+.
A word of caution: you might've just missed the BB overcall error, but maybe you didn't. In which case this highlights a problem with EV calculators. They are fantastic tools, but only when used correctly. Until you get a really good feel for ranges, you have to be super careful about how you interpret the results and even more so about taking such results and applying changes to your game.
And this is just a cEV calculation. ICM calculations are much much more complex (range sensitive).
Cliffs: easy call.
Hope this helps.
Thank you for the effort guys!
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