HM2 and PT4 giving same super absurd results for allins in MTTs
Posted by bettercallsaul
Posted by
bettercallsaul
posted in
Mid Stakes
HM2 and PT4 giving same super absurd results for allins in MTTs
Studying my late game in MTTs with HM2 I found a bug in a filter (totally unrealistic results for allins with lost or won bbs under 25, and beyond redic results with less than 15bbs, see pics in the links), so I asked HM2 support to fix the bug, but HM2 support says they think it is all ok in HM2 calculations for the filter (I also sent them my HHs and their results are the same).
So I tried with PT4 and - surprise surprise - results are exactly the same.
WTF? I made the math and it looks like my results are >10 sigma from the mean; i.e. (much) less likely than one in 400 BILLION runs.
This is NOT a whining post about the worst run in the universe. I just wanna know what's wrong in these numbers.
Here is how the graphs look like on HM2 and PT4. Can anyone help me understanding what am I not really understanding? Are your results with this filter totally off as well? It looks like a bug obv but how can HM2 and PT4 have the same exact bug? I guess there must be something that I am missing. Thank you guys
https://imgur.com/a/tClz9Vj
https://imgur.com/ZulFLOp
https://imgur.com/sm9dCsZ
Loading 8 Comments...
If both softwares are giving the same results it's unlikely the number is off.
yeah, I agree 100%, but if you look at the graphs or do the math with std deviation + sample, calculating the deviations from the mean, you'd also agree with me that the only other explanation for a run like that is that the room is rigged, and I am not really ready to believe that. we are talking pokerstars, not a random shady china site. infact I am pretty shocked at how nobody is getting seriosly freaked out about this, HM2's support included. should this results be correct, we would be in presence of an Ultimate Bet's level of fucked up situation.
in physics it's common knowledge that when a 7 sigma + event happens the most likely explanation behind it is that the model is wrong.
also, Pedro, would you be gentle enough to bother checking your own results with those filters? in HM2 is "allin on turn or earlier = true" + "won or lost bbs is less than 15".
in PT4 is "hands went to showdown" AND "went allin" AND "amount won / lost BB between -15 and 15".
just to see whether you have unrealistic results as well or not.
sure, Im off today, but tomorrow when I get back home I will check it for sure.
tyvm, really appreciated
done:
From this year
https://gyazo.com/ac9e0507ac3e9e47122c3d7f315f7488
All dates:
https://gyazo.com/9bbcfac8d16d6842d46a745d9aef1bf4
Thank you Pedro!
Your results are totally unrealistic as well, so now we can pacifically say that the stat is bugged, I guess. HM2's support keeps saying they think it is not bugged thou... (and I'm currently waiting for PT4 support opinion). Will post here PT4's response.
Ty again
agree, I will be waiting for the reply posts.
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