Getting raised on the river holding trips + top kicker

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Getting raised on the river holding trips + top kicker

Blinds: t50/t100 (9 Players) MP: 2,313
UTG+1: 5,475
MP+1: 6,596
MP+2: 4,113
CO: 5,628
BN: 1,070
SB: 1,432
BB: 2,960 (Hero)
UTG: 3,591
Preflop (150) Hero is BB with K Q
3 folds, MP+1 raises to 200, 3 folds, SB calls 150, Hero calls 100
Flop (690) 8 K K
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+1 bets 300, SB folds, Hero calls 300
Turn (1,290) 8 K K 5
Hero checks, MP+1 checks
River (1,290) 8 K K 5 A
Hero bets 675, MP+1 raises to 6,086 and is all in, Hero calls 1,775 and is all in
Final Pot MP+1 wins and shows a full house, Aces full of Kings.
BB lost and shows three of a kind, Kings.
MP+1 wins 6,190

I'm struggling to improve my river play. I believe one of my leaks is calling river raises too often.

Pre-flop: standard defend with great odds and decent cards. Imo no reason to 3bet, my stack feels a little too big to squeeze all in vs an initial raiser who is not in late position, and any 3bet not being all in could create a big pot with me being oop with an unpaired hand and likely dominated, also I'd have to fold to a 4bet shove, wasting my decent hand.

Flop: I check to aggressor, no reason to donklead since I expect him to cbet his entire range. I just call the bet, no reason to checkraise and scare him, no big draws on board, and no big stack to protect (not much reverse implied odds).

Turn: I check again and hope he continues to be aggressive, although having seen my flop call and on this brick turn, he will probably check behind, but that's okay. With this brick turn, my best hopes of getting another street of value are on the river anyway. I understand and accept that I'm not going to be able to put all my chips in on this board, and I'm happy if I can get some value by betting the river.

River: On my point of view, the river is the best it could be. If he has Ax he will likely call a bet. I would never bet worse than trips here, but people just call anyways having made top pair. I bet half pot, maybe I should bet slightly less to give him zero chance to fold Ax, which is my target for this bet.

For my surprise, he raises my river bet and puts me all-in. In the heat of the moment I called without much thought, but having analysed it later, I think it is very difficult for him to have a worse K because he would've probably have checked behind on the flop, plus there's only 1 K left in the deck.

I'm beating Kx and random bluff. Kx is difficult because I think they check behind on flop. Random bluff seems too crazy vs my line.

The hands that beat me are 88, 55, AA, AK, K8 and K5. K8 and K5 are unlikely opens pre-flop, and unlikely cbets. AK unlikely cbets. 88 very unlikely cbets flop, they should check behind and hope that the turn hits one of the villains. AA could cbet flop to try to get value from smaller pairs and 8, and check behind turn for pot control on the dangerous board, although AA could maybe check behind flop for pot control + hope turn hits villains. 55 definitely cbets flop to end the hand there and cash out his equity, and definitely checks behind on turn to slowplay the monster.

So... he either has 55 or AA, and I think I should have folded the river.

In the heat of the moment playing online it is very difficult for me to make a complete analysis like this, but as a rule of thumb I think I should just give the river raises more respect. Even though I cannot coldly analyse it while playing, I definitely get the feeling of "uh-oh... I'm going to get hurt here...". Maybe I should just trust this feeling more often.

Appreciate any thoughts, thanks!

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Eddie Spencer-Small 7 years, 7 months ago

I would actually check/raise the flop. If they're bluffing then there's no real card they can continue to bluff on the turn (except an ace). By calling here they're going to shut down anyway, so you may as well raise and get value out of the top of their range. If you're calling on the flop to keep in their bluffs, then the check on the turn is standard, as you have to let them continue your plan. Conversely, if you had check/raised the flop then it would be best to lead to further extract value.

Once again on the river, if you called on the flop to keep in bluffs, then the ace is the card you were looking for, and as a result, should check to let them bluff. However, a half bet here isn't awful as you'll get value from the weak aces which would have checked behind for showdown value. So I don't hate either option here.

As it goes, they raise your bet on the river, which to me screams absolute nutted value. I can't see this being done as a bluff, as they would have likely double barreled on the turn. Most villains, at the lower stakes on these boards, tend to fire on every street and aren't sophisticated enough to check back the turn. Therefore they have to be doing this for value. As it goes you seem to have analysed this river pretty solidly. It's just a case of being able to trust your instinct and find that fold button. Your instinct is built on past experiences, that's why it's usually right. Trust it. Of course in the heat of the moment that's easier said than done. You just need to keep running analysis simulations like these over and over until you train this part of your game to unconscious competence so you can fold with ease.

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