FT with set facing big bet OOP on terrible river

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FT with set facing big bet OOP on terrible river

Blinds: t800/t1,600 (8 Players) SB: 17,710
BB: 54,621
UTG: 14,579
UTG+1: 180,226 (Hero)
MP: 34,407
MP+1: 49,838
CO: 38,356
BN: 66,263
Preflop (2,400) Hero is UTG+1 with T T
UTG folds, Hero raises to 3,520, 3 folds, BN calls 3,520, 2 folds
Flop (11,040) 8 7 Q
Hero checks, BN bets 5,520, Hero calls 5,520
Turn (22,080) 8 7 Q T
Hero checks, BN checks
I was going to c/r turn after I turned a set here if I had been given the chance.
River (22,080) 8 7 Q T J
Hero checks, BN bets 16,560

Villain is second in chips at final table behind me (albeit way behind). River is pretty terrible for me obv. I block flush, but not straights, and villain bet pretty quickly on river after I checked. Maybe that's a hint to fold cause he didn't think much about it. Then again, I can afford to hero call here given that I'll still be huge chip leader even if I lose.

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Matcofly 5 years, 10 months ago

This is a pretty tough spot but you just got to think about his range. I don't see bluff in his range. You block some AT that he could turn into a bluff otr. Does he really value bet some two pairs on the river ? I mean, he should 2barrel his QJ, you block JT. I really don't see what he could turn into a bluff, sometimes 76s. The problem in this spot is that he don't have so many value hand. Some 9x like T9s but you block them, 98s, some flushes also but not many. If vilain is loose, he could potentially have A9s and some Q9s but I'm not so sure about. Also, with his size bet otr, he polarized his range quite a bit, I really don't think he's value betting 2 paires like this.
So I think it's better to fold. You're folding too much on the river because your Ts blocker is just perfect to call (blocking flushes and T9) but I don't see any bluff with this line and I think vilain is never exploiting you.

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