Totaly understand your thoughts but I think it is a ICM fold.
Normally in this type os spots were I know in theory is a fold (like you seem to know) but I really want to call because because someone is clearly shoving very light I think "If the payjumps were 100times bigger would I make the call?" ... "nope" lol And I have my answer ;)

http://www.holdemresources.net/nashicm?action=calculate&s1=20&s2=9&s3=0.1&s4=5&s5=12&p1=1950&p2=1200&p3=900&p4=750&p5=560&sb=0.5&bb=1&ante=0.125

I put the numbers on Holdemresources and shows that its a nash call with:
7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+
Villain should be pushing:
56.6%, 22+ Ax K2s+ K4o+ Q2s+ Q7o+ J2s+ J8o+ T3s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 64s+ 53s+

Remember that BTN is obligated to showdown, because his stack is less than the antes, and he needs to win both players.
I don't think villain is that wide knowing that his hand its going to be revealed...
but i think that TT is strong enough. Cheers!

JMMaga

Thanks for your input. I think you are right, it is surely an ICM fold. But its funny because on 2+2, people were saying that it isnt actually a Crystal clear fold. Seems like 1010 is slightly -EV and JJ would be right on the border.

Ganjabriel,
Btn is left with 0.1 ante AFTER the sb, bb and antes are taken so he wont be forced to reveal his hand during that 1010 vs CL shove action but he ll be forced all in the very next hand, which imo adds to the fact that i should not have called CL shove.
Does Nash equi consider ICM in that spot? Seems weird to me because it doesnt fit the numbers people on 2+2 were talking about.

But anyway thanks a lot for your thoughts and input.

I really think it is a call, the next pay jump is 190 euros but if you call and win here you would have about 20bb with next biggest stack being 12bb and able to put ICM pressure on everyone else now. I think you will win the tournament pretty often if you call and win here and I think that is well worth the risk. I understand the ICM calculation says it is a fold BUT it doesn’t take into consideration the future edge it will give you as the chip leader and the pressure you will be able to put on the other players

Hi Swissodds,

Ch frenchpart as well....

Looking for people to improve mtt ....

If you are interested...

I vote for ICM fold as well. Going through the blinds once more could mean losing 2 more players...

This is a weird one for sure. I like JMMaga's technique of increasing the stakes 100x. I find this necessary to do here if we want to come up with the correct poker decision because without doing that my inclination is to think "eh, it's ~$200 more, I call."

I'm certainly no expert (paging Sam Greenwood and Apotheosis) but if we're factoring in the marginal utility of the $ - I'm going for the 1,950 euros and not caring about the ladder.

I thought I recognized this post from 2+2 lol. Tough spot probably icm fold but if we double here we swap stacks with cl. I think if payout structure is a little steeper it's a call.

According to ICM:
If you fold (and everyone else folds) your stack is worth ~$1125
If you call and lose, you get $560 (shorty definitely folding if you call)
If you call and win, your stack is worth ~$1420

Find breakeven equity:
1125 = 1420 * e + (560) * (1-e)
e = 65.6%
Pick a shoving range and decide, seems pretty close with my first guess at a reasonable range.

I also think ICM tends to both undervalue your stack if you win and slightly overvalue your stack if you fold, so if it's really close I'd lean towards calling.