FT of Tricetops - How does river Q change his value vs. bluff range
Posted by dablancninja
Posted by dablancninja posted in Mid Stakes
FT of Tricetops - How does river Q change his value vs. bluff range
BB: DKarolis: 1139461
HJ: mjbnOne: 201724
CO: Sekwens: 578612
BN: dawhiteninja: 636205
SB: SJ1985: 163998
HJ: mjbnOne: 201724
CO: Sekwens: 578612
BN: dawhiteninja: 636205
SB: SJ1985: 163998
DKarolis is a good reg, and really turning up the aggression on this FT.
Preflop
(24000)
(5 Players)
dawhiteninja was dealt
9
9
mjbnOne folds, Sekwens folds, dawhiteninja raises to 32000, SJ1985 folds, DKarolis raises to 80000, dawhiteninja calls 48000
mjbnOne folds, Sekwens folds, dawhiteninja raises to 32000, SJ1985 folds, DKarolis raises to 80000, dawhiteninja calls 48000
ICM dictates I don't 4bet even if I think he's 3betting too much.... which he is. So IP I flat and I think this is fine.
Flop
(184000)
6
5
2
(2 Players)
DKarolis bets 64900,
dawhiteninja calls 64900
Obviously calling on this flop.
Turn
(313800)
6
5
2
3
(2 Players)
DKarolis checks,
dawhiteninja checks
He snap checks. And that raised slight alarm bells with a timing tell, as it wasn't something he had been doing. With that said I didn't know what to do here. I thought I very likely had the best hand, and I probably should bet for protection but in game I didn't want to face a check raise and have to fold because of ICM. So I thought I'd check behind and assess river. His range is very wide here and that's part of the problem I have here. It contains all sets, A4, and over pairs plus a ton of broadway. So I guess now thinking about it it's a clear bet as he's range is weighted to over cards? But bet folding here just seems horrid. Anyway!....
River
(313800)
6
5
2
3
Q
(2 Players)
DKarolis bets 211800
This is the major question for me. How does this river effect his range compared to a none 'scary' river say 5s. Does this Q add more bluffs and there for make it an easier call compared to if 5s landed? And what would you do in this spot?
Two discussion points:
1. Is it a protection bet on the turn?... What if you get check raised?
2. is it a call on the river?... And if he makes the same bet with more of a blank/no over card is it more or less of a call?
I'm assuming he can 3bet Ax4y for the basis of this post. (seen him 3bet Kx7y a few hands before) I'm also assuming he might go for a check raise with like QdXd on this turn. And I'm guessing he can value bet as wide as any set, Ax4y, QT+, QQ+. So how does this compare with his remaining hands left that are bluffs that snap check the turn?
Thanks in advance for your time!!
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